Weekend Box Office: Star Wars & Jumanji Ring in 2018

Welcome to 2018, ladies and worms! Last year closed out with $11.12 billion, good for third-highest yearly haul ever. 2017 was down -2.3% from 2016’s $11.4 billion take, but that’s no cause for alarm. With that, how did the last weekend of December fare?

Taking first, obligingly, is Disney/Lucasfilm’s Star Wars: The Last Jedi, adding an estimated $52.66 million (-26.4% from last weekend) to its coffers, eclipsing Disney’s own live-action Beauty and the Beast ($504m) for #1 movie of 2017 in the U.S./Canada. The Last Jedi grabbed $15.73m on New Year’s Day – domestic cume is $533.09m, leaping over 2016’s Rogue One: A Star Wars Story ($532.18m). Episode VIII will have passed 2008’s The Dark Knight ($534.86m) on Tuesday for sixth-highest grossing film ever.

How much gas is left in The Last Jedi’s tank? At the same point in release, 2015’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens had earned 73.28% of its eventual $936.66m domestic haul; similar figures for The Last Jedi give it around $675m. Conversely, Rogue One earned 79.85%, which would give Episode VIII a $640m total should it follow that pattern. There’s reason to believe The Last Jedi will play closer towards the lower end – thus far, TLJ has notched a 2.42x multiplier from its $220.01m opening weekend, off from Rogue One’s 2.74x and The Force Awakens’ 2.77x at the same point. Regardless, a domestic total over/under $640m slots The Last Jedi as the fifth-highest grossing film ever, an impressive figure no matter whatever expectations one may have held. There’s also a decent possibility Episode VIII hops over 2015’s Jurassic World ($652.27m) and 1997’s Titanic ($659.36m) to nab third-highest grossing film.

Yes, The Last Jedi will make $250m+ less than The Force Awakens, but that’s no reason to worry about Star Wars’ future. Episode VII was a huge outlier, the product of decades of hype. Episode VIII has to settle for being the third Star Wars film in as many years. If anything, let’s fear a little more for this May’s Solo: A Star Wars Story (which will be interesting, let me tell you). But even then, a franchise as sturdy as Star Wars can afford an occasional blip.

Overseas, Star Wars: The Last Jedi grossed $80.3 million from 54 markets for a $534.8m international and $1.066 billion global tally. Thus far, The Last Jedi is playing -35% below The Force Awakens and +36% above Rogue One. If that holds, we’re eyeing a final overseas haul between $710m-735m. China is The Last Jedi’s next big play and a run to watch, considering the nation doesn’t hold as much fervor for Star Wars as the western world. The Force Awakens earned $124.16m and Rogue One grossed $69.48m (despite the presence of Chinese movie stars Donnie Yen and Wen Jiang).

The optimal gross for TLJ would be over $100m, of course, although Gavin Feng, a Chinese film market analyst, has stated presales have been pretty poor and the film may make below $50m. Star Wars can afford to have a few markets that aren’t into it and this only really means Episode VIII will gross less than $1.5 billion globally, barring some strong holds, but it’s an interesting case in how other markets see Star Wars when they haven’t had decades of exposure. Anyhoo, the top five markets for Star Wars: The Last Jedi are the U.K. ($91.5m), Germany ($62m), France ($45.6m), Japan ($40.4m), and Australia ($35.1m).

Coming in second, Sony’s Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle grossed $50.36 million in its sophomore frame, an impressive +38.3% increase over its $36.4m debut. Jumanji actually beat The Last Jedi on New Year’s Day, taking $16.15m. Domestic cume is a strong $185.76m and will double the 1995 original’s $100.48m (unadjusted) gross this week. Kudos to Sony for producing the effects-heavy action adventure for a relatively modest $90m – it’s paid off in spades, with Welcome to the Jungle on course to be the studio’s highest-grossing movie not starring Spider-Man or James Bond. If Jumanji performs similarly to 2006’s Night at the Museum ($250.86m, 8.24x multiple) it’ll gross over/under $300m stateside. Don’t doubt the magic touch of Dwayne Johnson, kids.

Overseas, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle added $67 million from 80 markets. International cume is $153m and global is $338.76m, with plenty more to come (China, Japan, South Korea, Italy, so on and so forth). Top markets for Jumanji are the U.K. ($23.6m), Australia ($12.1m), France ($11.4m), Malaysia ($11.3m), and Germany ($9.3m).

In third, Universal’s Pitch Perfect 3 sang to $16.85 million in its second weekend, -15.5% from its $19.93m opening. New Year’s Day added $4.16m to the cause. Domestic total for Pitch Perfect 3 is a solid $67.5m, overtaking the 2012 original ($65m). There isn’t a chance in hell the acapella threequel matches the second movie’s $184.3m take (the reception just isn’t there), but with a reasonable $45m production cost it doesn’t necessarily have to. So where is this supposed finale headed? If it doesn’t fall off from here, Pitch Perfect 3 ought to cross $100m, but don’t expect it to venture much farther than that.

Internationally, Pitch Perfect 3 grossed $13.1 million from 34 markets for a $30.3m take. Global total is $97.8m. Top markets for the film are the U.K. ($11.7m), Germany ($5.2m), Taiwan ($1.6m), the Netherlands ($1.4m), and Malaysia ($1.3m).

In fourth, Fox’s The Greatest Showman grossed $15.55 million in its sophomore weekend, jumping +76.6% from its $8.81m debut. Impressively, that’s the highest increase ever for a film that opened in 2,000 theatres over a traditional (Friday-Sunday) weekend. It’s safe to say audiences are enjoying the Hugh Jackman musical quite a bit more than critics. The Greatest Showman added another $5.2m over New Year’s Day for a $54.27m total, and $100m may be in its sights if people keep taking to the film. All the better, considering Fox spent $84m to produce Greatest Showman.

Overseas, The Greatest Showman grossed $28.5 million from 55 markets for a $35.17m cume. Global total is $89.43m. Top markets are the U.K. ($6.1m), South Korea ($5.9m), Australia ($5.3m), Mexico ($2.7m), and Italy ($2.3m).

Rounding out the top five, Fox’s Ferdinand increased +55.8% over last weekend to gross $11.4 million. New Year’s Day gave John Cena’s bull another $3.2m, equaling a $56.76m total. That isn’t fantastic for Blue Sky Animation, what with Ferdinand’s $111m production cost and the impending Disney acquisition of Fox entertainment assets. Ferdinand is pacing -5.4% behind 2015’s Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip ($85.89m total) at the same point in release, pointing to a total around $80m.

Ferdinand added $23.1 million from 64 international markets for a $71.93m total. Global haul is $128.69m. The top markets for Ferdinand (with updated data) are France ($7.5m), Germany ($3.9m), and Holland ($2.7m).

 

HOLDOVERS

6. Coco (Disney) – $7.46 million (+38.6%), $179.83m cume
7. All the Money in the World (TriStar) – $5.6 million (NEW), $12.76m cume
8. Darkest Hour (Focus) – $5.48 million (+40.7%), $18.12m cume
9. Downsizing (Paramount) – $4.72 million (-4.7%), $17.18m cume
10. Father Figures (Warner Bros.) – $3.82 million (+16.3%), $12.85m cume

NOTABLES
– Molly’s Game (STX) – $2.33 million (NEW), $5.23m cume (271 theatres, $8,598 avg.)
– Call Me by Your Name (Sony Classics) – $746,628 (+0.2%), $4.66m cume (115 theatres, $6,492 avg.)
– I, Tonya (Neon) – $610,568 (+47.7%), $2.35m cume (49 theatres, $12,461 avg.)
– The Post (Fox) – $561,080 (+6.7%), $1.76m cume (9 theatres, $62,342 avg.)
– Phantom Thread (Focus) – $215,000 (NEW), $528,345 (4 theatres, $53,750 avg.)
– Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (Sony Classics) – $34,532 (NEW, 4 theatres, $8,633 avg.)
– Hostiles (Entertainment) – $33,454 (+46.4%), $85,745 (5 theatres, $6,691 avg.)