Weekend Box Office: Star Wars Seizes Colossal $220M

There are only a few certainties in life: we live, we die, Good Charlotte is terrible, and Star Wars movies always make money. The latter rung true yet again, in the wake of Disney making some pretty notable moves to shift the Hollywood landscape.

Disney/Lucasfilm’s Star Wars: The Last Jedi rung in $220.05 million from 4,232 hubs, the widest release yet for a December release and the second-highest debut in movie history, behind only 2015’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($247.97m). The Last Jedi came in +30% ahead of last year’s Rogue One: A Star Wars Story ($155.08m) and achieved an “A” rating from CinemaScore polls, in line with both The Force Awakens and Rogue One. This is a fantastic debut, no question, and speaks to the sheer power of the Star Wars brand.

Of course, it’s hard to discuss The Last Jedi without bringing up its decidedly mixed online reception. Whereas Episode VIII has earned a strong 93% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes and an 86 critic score on Metacritic, audience reception hasn’t been as kind – on Rotten Tomatoes, The Last Jedi holds a “rotten” 56% audience score and a 4.9/10 score on Metacritic. Such metrics would typically be indicative of relatively poor legs, but it’s hard to see that being the case for The Last Jedi.

For starters, the online discussions are a case of a vocal minority and don’t necessarily represent the general public. In fact, most people indeed enjoyed The Last Jedi – according to Deadline, 89% of audiences gave the movie positive notices on ComScore/Screen Engine. Couple that with Episode VIII’s “A” on CinemaScore. These aren’t measures that can be fiddled with online; rather, they are statistically valid metrics, measuring reactions of those who have seen the movie as they’re exiting. The point is, more than likely, that the aforementioned online discussions won’t have a noticeable impact on The Last Jedi’s legs. In fact, the movie being divisive to fans could spark interest in seeing what the fuss is about.

Speaking of legs, how high can Episode VIII go? If it’s on a trajectory similar to The Force Awakens (3.78x multiple), that leaves us with a giant $830m+ haul. If it plays akin to Rogue One (3.43x), we get around $755m. Or, say The Last Jedi continues pacing +30% over Rogue One, we have $692m. What with Christmas approaching and the “big movie of the winter” factor, odds are The Last Jedi falls somewhere between $700m-$800m, with the potential to go higher. Huge numbers regardless. Anything over $760m would make The Last Jedi the second-highest movie in the U.S./Canada, eclipsing 2009’s Avatar ($760.51m), though there’s no shame in being third. That, and it’s not totally reasonable to assume The Last Jedi will match/exceed The Force Awakens, for reasons outlined here.

Overseas, Star Wars: The Last Jedi amassed $230 million from 54 markets for a fantastic $450m global debut. That’s without China and good for fifth-highest worldwide debut – third-highest if we only consider non-China global openings. China has slotted The Last Jedi for January 5th, as Disney hopes it can crack a key international presence that hasn’t entirely warmed up to Star Wars. Alas, The Last Jedi’s top openings this weekend were the U.K. ($36.7m, third-highest opening ever), Germany ($23.6m, second-highest), France ($18.1m), Australia ($15.9, second-highest), and Japan ($14.4m).

Way down in second, Fox’s Ferdinand took in $13.33 million from 3,621 venues. That’s -7% from 2015’s Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip ($14.29m), which tallied $85.89m by run’s end. Caveat here being Ferdinand is considerably more liked by both critics and audiences relative to Road Chip. Animated movies are popular plays over December and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Ferdinand cross $100m stateside. With a $111m production cost, you kind of expect it to.

Internationally, Ferdinand grossed $6.19 million from 18 markets, led by Australia ($1.9m). Global debut is $19.52m. That number is unremarkable, but bear in mind Fox tends to push their animated fare to impressive figures overseas.

In third, Disney/Pixar’s Coco added $10.03 million in its fourth frame, a -45.7% decline. For comparison, last year’s Moana fell -31.3% when facing Rogue One, but The Last Jedi is a bigger beast. Domestic total for Coco is $150.81m and should eclipse this June’s Cars 3 ($152.9m) in days. Right now, Coco is -7.5% behind Moana at the same point in release. If that trend continues, Coco is eyeing a $230m total.

Overseas, Coco grossed $27.4 million from 36 markets for an overseas total of $297.4m. Global haul stands at $448.21m. Top markets for the acclaimed Pixar flick are China ($153.9m), Mexico ($57.2m), France ($14.7m), Spain ($10.6m), and Russia ($8.8m).

Taking fourth, Lionsgate’s Wonder continued to suitably wonder, gathering $5.4 million in its fifth frame, a light -36.1% decline. Domestic cume is $109.26m, fantastic for the $20m drama. Internationally, Wonder grossed $9.4 million from 60 territories, lifting its overseas coffers to $44.4m. Global total is $153.66m. Top markets for Wonder are Brazil ($8.7m), Australia ($6.3m), the U.K. ($4.7m), Spain ($3.8m), and Venezuela ($2.6m).

Rounding out the top five, Warner Bros./DC’s Justice League took in $4.17 million (-56.9%) in its fifth frame as it begins winding down its run. Domestic haul for the superhero team-up is $219.46m. There’s certainly something to be said when Star Wars: The Last Jedi makes more than a Justice League movie in the U.S./Canada over just three days (it’s not good, if you’re curious). Alas, greener pastures from here, we can hope. Overseas, Justice League added $5.3 million from 65 markets. Overseas and global totals are $414.5m and $633.96m, respectively. Top markets are China ($103.9m), Brazil ($38.1m), Mexico ($24.3m), the U.K. ($22.4m), and Australia ($14.5m).

That wraps up this week’s box office report. Check below for holdovers/notables, and have a safe and happy holidays!

 

HOLDOVERS

6. Daddy’s Home 2 (Paramount) – $3.8 million (-35.8%), $96.58m cume
7. Thor: Ragnarok (Disney) – $2.98 million (-52.5%), $306.38m cume
8. The Disaster Artist (A24) – $2.64 million (-58.6%), $12.93m cume
9. Murder on the Orient Express (Fox) – $2.47 million (-52.2%), $97.25m cume
10. Lady Bird (A24) – $2.11 million (-38.9%), $25.98m cume

NOTABLES
– The Shape of Water (Fox Searchlight) – $1.74 million (+52.2%), 158 theatres ($11,000 avg.), $3.62m cume
– Darkest Hour (Focus) – $850,000 (+14.6%), 84 theatres ($10,119 avg.), $2.34m cume
– Call Me By Your Name (Sony Classics) – $491,933 (+72.1%), 30 theates ($16,398 avg.), $2m cume
– Youth (China Lion) – $260,000 (NEW), 30 theatres ($8,667 avg.)
– I, Tonya (Neon) – $176,189 (-33.3%), 5 theatres ($35,238 avg.), $553,554 cume