Memorial Day weekend is a damn good time for movies to make some extra change. It’s not as good a time for Disney, though, given the number of flops/relative disappointments they’ve dropped on the date (e.g., Alice Through the Looking Glass, Tomorrowland). Can a franchise as iconic as Star Wars buck the trend?
Solo: A Star Wars Story (Disney)
Ah, Solo. What a troubled production you’ve been. Initially, the latest Star Wars anthology film was to be directed by Chris Miller and Phil Lord, notable for the Jump Street movies and The LEGO Movie. With just a few weeks left of shooting, they were canned (I’ll leave you to read that drama on your own time) and narrator extraordinaire Ron Howard was brought on to finish the thing. After extensive, probably pricey reshoots, Solo’s production cost has come in somewhere over $250 million, perhaps higher. If the final figure’s greater than Star Wars: The Force Awakens‘ $258.6m net cost, Solo will take the mantle of most expensive Star Wars flick.
The fact this cost so much is important here, since there’s a likely chance Solo will be the lowest-grossing Star Wars entry yet in the Disney era. There are many reasons for that, chief of which being nobody really yearned for a Han Solo origin story. Secondly, less than nobody yearned for a Han Solo movie sans Harrison Ford. Third, this is the fourth Star Wars movie in 3.5 years, and it’s only been five months since Star Wars: The Last Jedi. Speaking of The Last Jedi, that movie represented a bit of a dip from The Force Awakens, grossing $620.18m domestically/$1.332 billion globally vs. Force Awakens’ $936.66m/$2.068 billion. I won’t get into exactly why that happened, and certainly won’t get into a discussion about the quality of the film, but it suggests Star Wars isn’t a franchise that can sustain multiple entries in a short period of time akin to Marvel.
God, I make it seem like Solo’s going to bomb, don’t I?
Easy answer: of course it won’t. It’s Star Wars and Star Wars sells. Despite Last Jedi’s decline from its predecessor, it still managed to be the highest-grossing movie of 2017. Disney haven’t been plugging Solo nearly as much (or so I think) as its prior Star Wars films, which’ll be an interesting exercise in seeing just how much it can gross off brand power and familiarity alone. Plus Donald Glover’s Lando. That’s as good a reason as any to see this. Sidenote – why the fuck didn’t Lucasfilm just give us Lando: A Star Wars Story?
Reception for Solo has been firmly good-not-great, notching a 70% score on Rotten Tomatoes (avg. critic score being 6.5/10 from >170 reviews) and a 6.0/10 on IMDb from >6,300 scores (I smell some brigading!). As per BoxOffice Pro, social media buzz for Solo has fallen behind that of 2016’s Rogue One: A Star Wars Story at the same point in release, although it was ahead of it for some time. It’s hard to precisely gauge Solo, but there’s a range: lower than any other of the recent Star Wars’ 3-days, higher than $100m (we’re not going to witness a Justice League redux, God willing). Apparently the movie’s a fun time and I can see general audiences enjoying it – families are key here.
Rogue One’s domestic haul ($532.18m) dipped -43.2% from The Force Awakens. A similar dip from The Last Jedi gives Solo a $348.5m cume. Opening-wise, Rogue One’s $155.08m is off -37.5% from Force Awakens’ $247.97m, a figure that (assuming this estimation holds any water whatsoever) suggests a $137.5m 3-day for Solo, based off Last Jedi’s $220.01m debut. Maybe knock that down a tiny bit, given Last Jedi’s polarizing fan reception and the relative skepticism towards Solo. Insiders peg Solo at $135m-$170m over the 4-day weekend, whereas Disney is more conservative with a $130m-$150m 4-day projection. Disney’s higher end is reasonable, especially when one considers holdovers like Fox’s Deadpool 2 and Disney’s own Avengers: Infinity War will eat into Solo’s potential numbers. This can go either way, and I doubt many would be surprised by either outcome. At the end of the day, though, it’s still goddamn Star Wars.
Prediction: $130 million (3-day), $155 million (4-day)
HOLDOVERS
2. Deadpool 2 (Fox) – $56.5 million (-55%), $70 million (4-day), $238.1m cume
3. Avengers: Infinity War (Disney) – $17.7 million (-40%), $25 million (4-day), $630.8m cume
4. Book Club (Paramount) – $8.8 million (-35%), $12 million (4-day), $33.8m cume
5. Life of the Party (Warner Bros.) – $4.2 million (-45%), $5 million (4-day), $39m cume
6. Breaking In (Universal) – $3.4 million (-50%), $4.5 million (4-day), $36.1m cume
7. Show Dogs (Global Road) – $3 million (-50%), $4 million (4-day), $11.7m cume
8. Overboard (Lionsgate/Pantelion) – $2.8 million (-40%), $3.5 million (4-day), $42m cume
9. A Quiet Place (Paramount) – $2.6 million (-35%), $3.5 million (4-day), $181.3m cume
10. Rampage (Warner Bros.) – $950,000 (-40%), $1.2 million (4-day), $94.3m cume
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