Weekend Box Office Predictions: Four New Releases Battle for Scraps

Last weekend notched the unfortunate title of “lowest-grossing frame in 2017,” with the top twelve grossing a dismal $81.18 million. Four nationwide releases will try to resuscitate the dying box office – BH Tilt’s Birth of the Dragon, Weinstein Company’s Leap!, Sony/Columbia’s All Saints, and A24’s Good Time – but none of them are expected to make an impact. Predictions are below.

 

All Saints (Sony/Columbia)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f-eG7YYlfvU

Sony continues its pre-Labour Day religious film tradition with All Saints, based on the true story of Michael Spurlock, a salesman-turned-pastor. There are neither Rotten Tomatoes scores nor IMDb ratings as of this writing, but this genre tends to be critic-proof regardless. Sony’s War Room, released via their TriStar label, opened with $11.35 million last August and closed with an impressive $67.79m in North America (it’s worth noting War Room carried a $3m production cost). The Shack, which released this May, grossed $57.39m. That film was based on a popular book and had known faces like Octavia Spencer and Sam Worthington in its corner.

Predictions are hard to pin down for Christian-themed titles – marketing tends to be based around grassroots campaigns, targeting churches and religious groups, while mostly ignoring everybody else. War Room was helmed by Alex Kendrick, who had experience directing popular Christian fare (Courageous, Fireproof), while All Saints is helmed by Steve Gomer, whose last “notable” theatrical release was Barney’s Great Adventure (as in the big purple dinosaur) in 1998. All Saints won’t come near War Room’s numbers, but given its “true story” status it should appeal to its target audience just fine. All Saints is set to be released in 800 venues – if it follows The Shack’s per-theatre average, it’s eyeing a $4.48 million debut, which appears to be on point.

Prediction: $4.5 million, #5 rank

 

Birth of the Dragon (BH Tilt)

George Nolfi’s Birth of the Dragon is a Bruce Lee biopic without any of the buzz a Bruce Lee biopic should have. There are no critic reviews as of this writing (that isn’t a good thing), but there are IMDb reviews and they aren’t pretty – Dragon carries a 3.8/10 score from over 800 ratings. Shannon Lee, daughter of Bruce Lee, has also criticized the film, saying that it “lacks a lack a complete understanding of his philosophies and artistry. They haven’t captured the essence of his beliefs in martial arts or storytelling” (as per the BBC). A biopic’s success is predicated on its validity; there is little purpose in seeing a true story if a film doesn’t embody that story.

Birth of the Dragon comes courtesy of BH Tilt, a component of Blumhouse Productions (known for hits such as this year’s Split and Get Out), which distributes low-budget fare in theatres known for attracting audiences of said film’s genre. BH Tilt’s titles don’t need to make a lot of money, as P&A is kept to a minimum. The distributor’s highest-grossing film to date is 2016’s The Darkness, which opened to $4.95 million on its way to $10.75m in North America. The Darkness had the benefit of debuting in the summer, whereas Dragon opens as the box office slows to a crawl. Birth of the Dragon is slated to be released in 1,500 theatres, but given its negative reception, low-key marketing, and zero star power it’s doubtful the film will pose any competition.

Prediction: $2.5 million, #11 rank

 

Good Time (A24)

A24 has carved a niche for itself as a purveyor of acclaimed, well-crafted fare. Conversely, it hasn’t found much commercial prestige with its highest-grossing release being the Best Picture-winning Moonlight ($27.85m). Their highest-grossing title this year has been It Comes at Night, which managed just $13.88m from a nationwide release.

This brings us to Good Time, a crime drama starring Robert Pattinson and Jennifer Jason Leigh. Critics have showered praise over the film, awarding it a 90% rating on Rotten Tomatoes (avg. critic score being 7.4/10 from over 90 reviews). Audience reception has also been favourable – Good Time carries a 7.9/10 score on IMDb from over 1,100 ratings. Good Time has also had a successful limited release, grossing $356k from 20 theatres. Trailers have also distinguished the film as a stylistic treat with an emphasis on Robert Pattinson’s performance. The official theatre count for Good Time has yet to be announced, but this summer’s The Big Sick may be a good comparison – it opened in limited release, found acclaim, then grossed $7.56m in its nationwide expansion. Good Time differs in that it’s considerably darker and it isn’t expanding in the heart of summer, as well as the fact A24 doesn’t tend to expand to 2,500+ theatres (ala Big Sick). Still, Good Time is positioned to make a decent chunk of change.

The prediction below assumes that Good Time expands to around 1,000 theatres.

Prediction: $4 million, #7 rank

 

Leap! (Weinstein Company)

This weekend’s final nationwide release is Weinstein Company’s Leap!, an animated film centred on a pair of orphans who attempt to live their dreams in Paris. Leap! has received mixed reception – it currently has a 57% score on Rotten Tomatoes, though that’s from less than 10 reviews thus the rating is subject to change. Audience approval is more reliable here – Leap! was released internationally early this year (titled as Ballerina), where it grossed $58.19m, as well as Canada (no numbers are available). On IMDb, Leap! has a 6.9/10 score from nearly 7,500 ratings.

To the film’s benefit, it hasn’t been panned as a couple other animated releases this summer (The Emoji Movie and The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature, if we’re being specific), but it may be hurt by the fact it has shifted release dates on multiple occasions. Not much promotion for the movie has been seen, which will also work against it. A decent comp is Weinstein Co.’s Hoodwinked!, which opened to $12.4m from 2,394 locations in 2005 (with the obvious caveat that Hoodwinked! was a December release). Leap!’s concept also doesn’t lend itself to commercial success in North America (it lacks a “hook”), and we have already seen a plethora of animation over the past few months (Disney/Pixar’s Cars 3, Universal/Illumination’s Despicable Me 3, the aforementioned Emoji Movie and Nut Job 2). Leap! will release in 2,000+ theatres – it’s unlikely to be a disaster (Weinstein just needs to cover distribution/marketing costs), but it won’t be a stand-out either.

Prediction: $7.5 million, #3 rank

 

HOLDOVER PREDICTIONS

1. The Hitman’s Bodyguard (Lionsgate) – $12.8 million (-40%), $42.1m cume
2. Annabelle: Creation (Warner Bros.) – $8.6 million (-45%), $78.6m cume
4. Logan Lucky (Bleecker Street) – $4.6 million (-39%), $14.7m cume
6. Dunkirk (Warner Bros.) – $4.1 million (-38%), $172.2m cume
8. The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature (Open Road) – $3 million (-40%), $22.9m cume
9. Spider-Man: Homecoming (Sony) – $2.9 million (-31%), $318.8m cume
10. The Emoji Movie (Sony) – $2.7 million (-39%), $76.5m cume

That’s all for this weekend’s box office forecast. As usual, thanks for reading, and check back next week for box office numbers.