After a record-breaking September ($708.9 million in domestic receipts), October has a teensy bit of pressure. Three new releases are debuting this weekend, each of which have their own appeal. Predictions are below.
Blade Runner 2049 (Warner Bros.)
Denis Villenueve’s Blade Runner 2049 hopes to continue the trend of acclaimed sci-fi breaking big in October (ala Gravity and The Martian). 2049 has the “acclaim” part down pat; thus far, the movie has a stellar 90% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes (avg. critic score being 8.4/10 from >150 reviews) and an 8.7/10 on IMDb from >4,000 scores. It also helps that many herald the original Blade Runner as one of the all-time sci-fi greats.
While Blade Runner eventually found its place (it received polarizing response upon release), its box office is less than showy – over multiple releases, Blade Runner earned $32.87 million in the U.S./Canada, which translates to $83.4m when adjusted for inflation. That’s concerning, especially as Blade Runner 2049 carries a reported $150m (some report as high as $185m) price tag. The market is experiencing a nostalgia wave, absolutely, but Blade Runner is a niche thing and that may not be enough to justify the sequel’s exorbitant cost. With that said, the movie looking fantastic can only help it, and although Blade Runner didn’t make a lot of dough it’s a well-known property. Plus, 2049 boasts faces like Harrison Ford, Ryan Gosling, and Jared Leto. A decent comp here is 2015’s Mad Max: Fury Road, a similarly acclaimed follow-up to an old niche series. Fury Road opened with $45.43m, a figure in reach for Blade Runner 2049. Given its wave of acclaim and the fact we haven’t had a breakout hit since Warner’s own IT last month, Blade Runner 2049 should do fine (side note: Sony and Alcon Entertainment are handling Blade Runner 2049’s international release).
Prediction: $48 million, #1 rank
The Mountain Between Us (Fox)
Idris Elba and Kate Winslet star in Hany Abu-Assad’s adaptation of The Mountain Between Us. Both Elba and Winslet are known and being an adaptation lends some name-recognition.
The Mountain Between Us airs the impression of “gimme some awards,” but its reception puts that to rest – as of this writing, The Mountain Between Us has a 53% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes (avg. critic score being 5.3/10 from >70 reviews) and a 6.0/10 on IMDb from nearly 300 scores (small sample size, but still not promising). There could’ve been an audience for this movie (wilderness survival romance), but it hasn’t engaged people like it should’ve. The Mountain Between Us can save face overseas – thanks to its familiar stars, pretty visuals, and Fox being maestros with international box office – but things aren’t looking rosy domestically. If there’s any consolation, The Mountain Between Us cost a reasonable $35m to produce.
Prediction:Â $12 million, #2 rank
My Little Pony: The Movie (Lionsgate)
https://youtu.be/aeQe_mZcyf8
This was an inevitable thing, I guess. My Little Pony: The Movie is the latest addition to the perpetual My Little Pony franchise, and perhaps the most surprising thing is that the movie isn’t terrible – the flick carries a 69% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes (avg. critic score being 5.4/10 from nearly 20 reviews) and a 6.7/10 on IMDb from >400 scores.
The main concern with My Little Pony: The Movie is it’s doubtful there’s a need to see it in theatres. The franchise is kind of ubiquitous (for good reasons and bad) and there are an ample number of ways to watch this world on your TV. Regarding box office, My Little Pony obviously appeals to younger children, but is also an animated franchise that has the strange distinction of appealing to particular males as well. Whether or not this demographic will be a boon to the movie’s box office receipts will be a mystery until Tuesday, but it exists nonetheless. So there’s that.
Official budget information hasn’t been released, although I imagine it didn’t cost much at all to produce this. With that in mind, My Little Pony: The Movie should make a small chunk of change for all parties involved.
Prediction:Â $10 million, #4 rank
HOLDOVERS
3. American Made (Universal) – $10.06 million (-40%), $32.48m cume
5. IT (Warner Bros./New Line) – $9.3 million (-45%), $304.53m cume
6. Kingsman: The Golden Circle (Fox) – $8.47 million (-50%), $80.29m cume
7. The LEGO Ninjago Movie (Warner Bros.) – $6.4 million (-45%), $43.4m cume
8. Battle of the Sexes (Fox Searchlight) – $2.73 million (-20%), $8.01m cume
9. Flatliners (Sony) – $2.63 million (-60%), $11.1m cume
10. Victoria and Abdul (Focus) – $2.56 million (+134.4%), $4.35m cume
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