There’s really only one big story from the weekend so let’s cut to it -Disney/Marvel’s Black Panther is a fucking behemoth. More specifically, the $200 million production wrangled $202m over the 3-day weekend and $242.16m over the 4-day from 4,020 hubs.
Some perspective: Black Panther has outgrossed Warner Bros./DC’s Justice League ($228.78m) already and its 4-day is higher than that of Disney/Lucasfilm’s Star Wars: The Last Jedi ($241.57m). It’s the second-highest 4-day debut in box office history, behind Disney/Lucasfilm’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($288.08m), as well as the fifth-highest 3-day opening, behind The Force Awakens ($247.97m), The Last Jedi ($220.01m), Universal’s Jurassic World ($208.81m), and Disney/Marvel’s The Avengers ($207.44m). Those are all huge movies from huge franchises (I’ll argue that Avengers counts more as a sequel than Black Panther), so to join that company speaks to the utter power of Black Panther’s cultural importance.
Some more key points, since there’s quite a list: highest February opening ever; highest-grossing movie directed by an African-American domestically, beating F. Gary Gary’s The Fate of the Furious ($226.01m) already, and we’ll see about matching its $1.236 billion global haul; highest Monday gross ($40.15m) ever, beating The Force Awakens ($40.11m); highest opening for a solo superhero; highest non-sequel opening (maybe arguable, but hey); second-highest Sunday gross ever ($60.07m), just behind The Force Awakens ($60.55m); third-highest per-theatre average for a nationwide release ever ($50,250). It also ranks #26 for superhero features already (in terms of total domestic gross) and should leap up that list in due time.
With all that out of the way, where can we expect Black Panther to land when all’s said and done? You could throw the typical Marvel legs (about 2.7x) and get a $545m+ tally, but this isn’t a typical Marvel movie. Jurassic World’s debut was similar in that most pegged a $125m-ish figure, but said figure gradually got higher and higher before blowing away even the most optimistic projections.
In the end, Jurassic World earned a 3.12x multiple, the same of which gives Black Panther around $630m, a gross higher than Star Wars: The Last Jedi ($618.2m as it nears the end of its run). Playing like The Avengers (3.01x) get us $608m. Wherever Black Panther lands ($545m-$630m+), it’s a spectacular and unprecedented performance. Great news for Marvel, too, as this May’s Avengers: Infinity War (featuring Black Panther, to boot) is widely expected to also open above $200m. Just for fun, if Black Panther holds like Warner Bros./DC’s Wonder Woman (4x), we’ll see a jaw-dropping $808m total. Unlikely, yes, but it’s hard to doubt the movie at this point.
What about the rest of the world? Black Panther earned $168.7m from 48 markets over the weekend, fantastic numbers. Totals through Monday are $184.6m overseas and $426.75m global. This movie has hit the zeitgeist and it’s showing in spades; top openings for Black Panther are South Korea ($25.3m), the U.K. ($24.9m), Mexico ($9.6m), Brazil ($9.4m), and Australia ($9.2m).
In a distant second (everything else seems a bit boring in comparison to Black Panther, doesn’t it?), Sony’s Peter Rabbit hopped to $17.51m (-30%) over the 3-day and $23.38m over the 4-day. Domestic cume is $54.36m after 11 days, healthy figures for the $50m animation-live action hybrid. Thus far, Peter Rabbit is pacing +26.6% ahead of 2015’s Paddington at the same point in release, which if maintained points to a $96m+ final tally.
There are no international numbers to report for Peter Rabbit.
Taking third, Universal’s Fifty Shades Freed whipped (so sorry) $17.31m in its second frame over the 3-day weekend and $19.44m over the 4-day. Domestic cume for the trilogy capper is $78.63m, or -14% behind last year’s Fifty Shades Darker at the same point. Keeping that trend gives Freed a final haul around $98m.
International is where the Fifty Shades franchise shines and it’s no different here – Freed added $47.7m from 60 markets. Offshore cume through Monday is $194.2m and global is $272.83m for the $55m-budgeted flick. Top markets for Freed are Germany ($22.2m), the U.K. ($19.7m), France ($14.6m), Italy ($14.1m), and Brazil ($12.4m).
Despite the added competition, Sony’s Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle held strong, dropping just -20.8% for $7.94m over the 3-day weekend and $10.01m over the 4-day. Total in the U.S./Canada is $379.69m, overtaking 2004’s Spider-Man 2 ($373.59m) to become Sony’s second-highest grossing movie domestically. The next milestone is 2002’s Spider-Man ($403.71m) to take the Sony crown, and Jumanji very well could. We’ll see.
Overseas, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle grossed $4.8m from 94 markets to gross $528.66m through Monday. Global is $908.35m. Yet to receive updated numbers for specific territory breakdowns, but top markets since last week are China ($78m), the U.K. ($50m), Australia ($37.8m), France ($27.6m), and Russia ($25m).
Finishing the top five, Warner’s Clint Eastwood picture The 15:17 to Paris earned $7.59m (-39.6%) over the 3-day weekend and $8.92m over the 4-day. Tally for the true story is $26.67m, not terrible given the $30m production cost but far from notable. At this point, Paris could climb past $40m, although likely not by much.
Internationally, The 15:17 to Paris earned $2.8m from 27 markets for a $10.7m overseas haul. Global total is $37.37m. Top markets for the flick are Italy ($2.8m), France ($1.4m, pending update), Australia ($658k), the U.K. ($401k, pending update), and Argentina ($350k, pending update).
Meanwhile, the weekend’s other new releases bombed, unfortunately. Lionsgate/Aardman’s Early Man debuted at #7, earning $3.19m (3-day)/$4.26m (4-day) from 2,494 hubs. It’ll be lucky to match 2015’s Shaun the Sheep Movie ($19.38m). Pure Flix’s religious epic Samson couldn’t make the top 10, debuting at #11 and grossing $1.94m (3-day)/$2.26m (4-day) from 1,249 venues; hell, it might not even gross $10m. No budget information for this one, but hopefully it wasn’t high.
HOLDOVERS
6. The Greatest Showman (Fox) – $5.03 million (-21.9%), $6.53 million (4-day), $155.91m cume
8. Maze Runner: The Death Cure (Fox) – $2.6 million (-58.2%), $3.24 million (4-day), $54.72m cume
9. Winchester (Lionsgate) – $2.21 million (-57.7%), $2.62 million (4-day), $22.25m cume
10. The Post (Fox) – $1.99 million (-45.2%), $2.44 million (4-day), $77.05m cume
Thanks for reading! What do you think about Black Panther’s record-breaking performance – are you surprised, satisfied? Sound off in the comments below!
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