Box Office Weekend Forecast: Emoji Movie Smiles, Atomic Blonde Heats Up

Throughout July, we’ve seen a litany of tentpole fare fill multiplexes. On the month’s final weekend, two lower-profile releases come out, but each should pull in healthy grosses.

 

The Emoji Movie (Sony)

The newest film from Sony Animation hopes to maintain its parent studio’s success this summer – Sony has had two hits with Edgar Wright’s Baby Driver and Jon Watts’ Spider-Man: Homecoming. Tony Leondis’ The Emoji Movie follows an emoji who seeks to find his identity and become a “normal” emoji. Emoji Movie’s premise is in the same meta vein as Phil Lord and Chris Miller’s The Lego Movie, a smash hit that grossed $257.8 million domestically/$469.2m worldwide. It is doubtful that Emoji Movie will follow in Lego Movie’s footsteps – for one, there are no reviews for Emoji Movie (a concerning sign, since the film releases tomorrow) whereas Lego Movie was acclaimed; secondly, the idea of a movie revolving around the Lego brand was never a foreign concept, as we have had Lego games and straight-to-DVD Lego movies, while The Emoji Movie does not have the same benefit. Many people have been exposed to emoticons, but do they want to see them on the silver screen?

Since its announcement, buzz for The Emoji Movie has been mixed, with one camp saying it could be a fun allegory, with the other camp stating it is a blatant cash grab. In the middle, we have the families who simply enjoy seeing animated movies, and Emoji Movie’s marketing appeals to them the most. Trailers have been kid-friendly while offering relatable humour for adults (nearly everybody has used/seen an emoji). Reception doesn’t tend to harm an animated movie when it’s the only notable one on the market – DreamWorks’ The Boss Baby received mixed-to-negative notices, yet still grossed $174.5m domestically/$495.7m worldwide. That said, Emoji Movie helmer Tony Leondis’ two directorial credits, 2005’s Lilo & Stitch 2: Stitch Has a Glitch and 2008’s Igor, have scores of 40% and 36% on Rotten Tomatoes, respectively. There is a possibility that general audiences are keen to see if Emoji Movie’s “cash grab” concept gains positive reception before deciding to watch it; the aforementioned Boss Baby had the benefit of being based on a popular children’s book.

The Emoji Movie cost a frugal (for the genre) $50m to produce, so it won’t take much for it break even. As the only marquee animated film throughout August (by then, Universal/Illumination’s Despicable Me 3 will be winding down its run), Emoji Movie should take in decent grosses. By no means will it be a smash hit, however.

Prediction: $30 million, #2 rank

 

Atomic Blonde (Focus Features)

David Leitch, who co-directed Lionsgate’s John Wick and helms Fox’s upcoming Deadpool 2, brings us this thriller following Charlize Theron as an undercover MI6 agent. Atomic Blonde is based on the Oni Press graphic novel series The Coldest City, which gives it a familiarity boost (albeit a small one). Atomic Blonde’s main selling points are its style and its actors – Charlize Theron comes off action-centric turns from 2015’s Mad Max: Fury Road and this April’s The Fate of the Furious, while James McAvoy had a hit in Split this January. Warner Bros./DC’s Wonder Woman (fast approaching $400m stateside, by the way) has proven there is a big market for female-centred actioners, and a known name like Theron being marketed as the “first female 007” is an enticing prospect.

Reception for Atomic Blonde has skewed positive, with a 74% rating on Rotten Tomatoes (avg. critic score being 6.6/10 from over 30 reviews) and a 7.2/10 score on IMDb from over 1,700 ratings. The only drawback for Atomic Blonde is competition – Christopher Nolan’s Dunkirk will still be chugging along, Malcolm D. Lee’s Girls Trip has proven popular with females, and tentpoles War for the Planet of the Apes and Spider-Man: Homecoming play to action lovers. Still, if people take to Atomic Blonde, it will have a leggy run throughout August. The opening weekend per-theatre average for the two John Wick films would give Blonde a $25.3 million debut, which appears to be on point. Considering Blonde cost a cheap $30m to produce, it should be profitable for Focus and company.

Prediction: $26 million, #3 rank

 

HOLDOVER PREDICTIONS

Dunkirk

Dunkirk – #1 rank, $32.8 million (-35%), $109.6m cume
Girls Trip – #4 rank, $19 million (-39%), $67.7m cume
Spider-Man: Homecoming – #5 rank, $11.5 million (-48%), $277.7m cume
War for the Planet of the Apes – #6 rank, $10.7 million (-49%), $118.8m cume
Despicable Me 3 – #7 rank, $8.1 million (-38%), $232.5m cume
Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets – #8 rank, $7.3 million (-57%), $30.8m cume
Baby Driver – #9 rank, $3.8 million (-37%), $92.1m cume
The Big Sick – #10 rank, $3.6 million (-29%), $31m cume

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