Weekend Box Office Predictions: Thor to Hammer Competition

October wasn’t a great month. It feels like every opening sentence in these articles are downers, but goddamnit things aren’t great at the box office lately. Emphasis on that came last weekend, when Jigsaw fizzled with $16.64 million, failing to relaunch Lionsgate’s once-reliable horror franchise.

Chris Hemsworth doesn’t care, though. Chris Hemsworth is here to save us.

 

A Bad Moms Christmas (STX)

Last summer’s Bad Moms was a surprise hit for relatively new distributor STX, opening with $23.82 million and totaling $113.26m domestically/$183.94m globally. Of course, it’s an unwritten tenet in Hollywood to immediately cash in on surprise hits, and so we’re getting A Bad Moms Christmas.

Could be worse. We could be getting a freaking cinematic universe.

With regards to box office, A Bad Moms Christmas has already opened, grabbing $2.52 million on Wednesday from 3,615 venues. That’s not good. Bad Moms Christmas’ opening day was just above Bad Moms’ second Wednesday ($2.38m), for perspective. It’d be easy to predict doom and gloom for the $28m sequel, but there’s a strong chance its audience is waiting to see it over the weekend. Plus, anything with “Christmas” in its title is destined for perpetual circulation on TV.

Reception for Bad Moms Christmas has been less than merry; the film notched a 28% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes (avg. critic score being 4.3/10 from >65 reviews) and a 5.6/10 score on IMDb from >300 ratings (granted, not a sufficient sample size to make a generalization). Bad Moms had the benefit of being a unique offering whereas this feels a lot less novel. It ought to play fine over the holiday season, but don’t expect terrific numbers.

Prediction: $19 million, #2 rank

 

Thor: Ragnarok (Disney)

If there’s any lesson to take to heart over the past decade, it’s not to doubt the omnipotent Mouse House. That’s likely to continue with Marvel’s Thor: Ragnarok, helmed by Taika Waititi (What We Do in the Shadows, Hunt for the Wilderpeople).

Ragnarok doesn’t face the question of whether it’ll be big; it’s guaranteed to suck up dollar bills around the world. The game here is to guess just how big it’ll end up being. Marketing for Ragnarok has been brilliant, painting a ’80s fever dream that we’re more than down for. Thor has been one of the lesser grossers in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, with 2013’s Thor: The Dark World ranking #12 out of 16 movies ($206.36m).

The stylistic overhaul to Thor’s world has worked wonders for buzz, with some claiming it’s the best movie in the MCU yet. Ragnarok carries a 94% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes (avg. critic score being 7.5/10 from >195 reviews) and an 8.2/10 score on IMDb from >39,000 ratings. When it comes to box office, this year’s Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 debuted with $146.51m, +36% over its predecessor’s $94.32m launch. Thor: The Dark World opened to $85.74m; a similar bump for Ragnarok would give it $116m. Maybe it’ll go higher, maybe lower, but that feels like a decent bet. Overseas, Ragnarok has already taken in $109.09m from 36 markets – the threequel could hit $400m globally by Monday.

Prediction: $115 million, #1 rank

 

HOLDOVERS

3. Jigsaw (Lionsgate) – $6.6 million (-60%), $28.67m cume
4. Boo 2! A Madea Halloween (Lionsgate) – $4.5 million (-55%), $42.79m cume
5. Geostorm (Warner Bros.) – $2.9 million (-50%), $28.65m cume
6. Happy Death Day (Universal) – $2.8 million (-45%), $52.92m cume
7. Blade Runner 2049 (Warner Bros.) – $2.5 million (-40%), $85.72m cume
8. Thank You for Your Service (Universal) – $2.3 million (-40%), $7.34m cume
9. Only the Brave (Sony) – $2.1 million (-40%), $15.42m cume
10. The Foreigner (STX) – $1.9 million (-45%), $32.29m cume

NEW
LBJ (Electric) – $1.3 million, 659 theatres