Weekend Box Office Predictions: Jigsaw Piecing #1 Finish

Last weekend was kind of a bust, with Tyler Perry’s Boo 2! A Madea Halloween taking the crown despite a drop from its predecessor, and the less said about the other releases the better. Can this weekend fare any better? Maaaaaaybe (but probably not). Predictions are below.

 

Jigsaw (Lionsgate)

Michael and Peter Spierig (Daybreakers, Predestination) helm the eighth entry in the Saw series, a film wanting to distance itself from that fact so much it retooled its title completely (to be fair, the initial Saw: Legacy title implied utter trash). Indeed, I am talking about Jigsaw.

Saw was once the highest-grossing horror franchise in cinematic history (now #3, but still), though its fall was shockingly fast thanks to the advent of Paranormal Activity (ironically, that franchise collapsed as well). Lionsgate attempted to bury the hatchet with 2010’s Saw 3D, also titled Saw: The Final Chapter on home media. For what it’s worth, Saw 3D didn’t flop, grossing $45.71 million domestically/$136.15 million globally off a $20m production cost. But you know what they say about critically-maligned and overstayed horror franchises: can’t live with ’em, can’t live without ’em.

So that brings us to Jigsaw. On paper, if we had to get a Saw revival it might as well have been this one, but therein lies Jigsaw’s biggest hurdle towards financial glory – the idea of a Saw revival elicits a simple, “Oh.” Don’t get me wrong, there’s a fanbase for Saw. There wouldn’t be eight movies if it didn’t. Jigsaw, by virtue of not calling itself “Saw ________”, has the prerogative of ushering in old fans and a new generation. This year has been kind to horror, plus Jigsaw has Halloween to itself, but I doubt the film’s ability to carry past its opening weekend (aka, it’ll have trouble drawing the uninitiated).

I could talk about how Jigsaw’s lack of reviews so short prior to release is concerning, but that would be pointless. We know what we’re getting here; this is Movie #8. It’ll be objectively bad (exhibit A, this lovely piece of dialogue from the trailer: “Games can be WON!“) though somewhat entertaining to its target audience. With that, let’s talk box office. Saw 3D opened with $22.53m; the average opening drop from Saw III to Saw V is -5.5%. Applied here, that gives Jigsaw a $21.3m debut, which sounds about right (give or take a few million). There’s little chance Jigsaw matches the series’ opening record (Saw III with $33.61m), but with a $10m production cost it doesn’t have to. How well Jigsaw will hold is the real question.

Prediction: $20 million, #1 rank

 

Suburbicon (Paramount)

Suburbicon is a dark comedy helmed by George Clooney, penned by the Coen brothers, and features a star-studded cast including Matt Damon, Julianne Moore, and Oscar Isaac. For all intents and purposes, it should be an easy hit (the production budget came in at a reasonable $25m, to boot).

Oh, what could’ve been. Suburbicon has not been received kindly, notching a 32% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes (avg. critic score being 5.1/10 from >70 reviews) and a dour 4.7/10 score on IMDb from >800 ratings. In essence, folks say Suburbicon tries to satirize a hodgepodge of social issues and falls flat on its face. Negative reviews are death blows to wannabe-prestige pictures and it won’t be any different here; regardless of star power, today’s audiences place more heft on story and execution. Suburbicon’s marketing provides decent enough atmosphere, but doesn’t necessarily explain what the hell is going on aside from “this suburb is crazy!” As a whole, it feels inconsistent.

In summary, Suburbicon could’ve and by all means should’ve done well, but its negative notices will make short work of any commercial prospects.

Prediction: $7 million, #3 rank

 

Thank You for Your Service (Universal)

Thank You for Your Service comes courtesy of Jason Hall, most notable for writing Clint Eastwood’s American Sniper ($350.13m). The film is based on the non-fiction book of the same name by David Finkel, and revolves around a returning group of U.S. soldiers struggling to readjust to their lives at home. Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is absolutely a mental illness worth discussing and educating the public about. I’m just not sure it’s something that people will want to see on the big screen. As evidenced by last weekend’s Only the Brave, which flopped with a $6 million debut, tragedy and events in that vein are hard sells – they don’t offer an escapism incentive, something theatrical releases are having to rely on more and more these days.

To offset that, these movies need to be excellent and, typically, need to hit a cultural nerve without coming off as a cash grab. Reception around Thank You for Your Service has been good-to-okay; the movie has a 73% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes (avg. critic score of 6.7/10 from >30 reviews) and a 5.4/10 score on IMDb (from <200 ratings, so take it with a grain of salt). What we can take from this is that Thank You for Your Service isn’t a bad movie, but again, it may not be the kind of flick that people rush to see.

All that being said, Thank You for Your Service addresses an important issue and, for the most part, seems to do it honestly. That’s worth something. I think it’ll perform much better in the post-theatrical market than it will in multiplexes.

Prediction: $6 million, #5 rank

 

HOLDOVERS

2. Boo 2! A Madea Halloween (Lionsgate) – $11.7 million (-45%), $37.15m cume
4. Geostorm (Warner Bros.) – $6.2 million (-55%), $24.13m cume
6. Happy Death Day (Universal) – $5.1 million (-45%), $48.37m cume
7. Blade Runner 2049 (Warner Bros.) – $4.4 million (-40%), $81.14m cume
8. Only the Brave (Sony) – $3.9 million (-35%), $12.38m cume
9. The Foreigner (STX) – $2.9 million (-50%), $28.51m cume
10. IT (Warner Bros./New Line) – $2.4 million (-30%), $323.72m cume