This summer movie season is -12% off from last, and it’s unlikely this weekend’s new wide releases will do much to fix that. Predictions are below.
The Hitman’s Bodyguard (Lionsgate)
On paper, Patrick Hughes’ action-comedy The Hitman’s Bodyguard is sound – it stars Ryan Reynolds and Samuel L. Jackson (two well-known names) as leads, Gary Oldman and Salma Hayek (also known names) in supporting roles, and it arrives in an August starving for a blockbuster.
Reality isn’t kind, though. While Hitman’s Bodyguard has a few factors in its favour, it has as much going against it. Reception for the film has been mixed-leaning-negative, with a 45% rating on Rotten Tomatoes (avg. critic score being 5.3/10 from over 25 reviews) and a (conversely) decent 7.0/10 on IMDb over 650 scores. It’s worth noting with IMDb that most scores during pre-release are not indicative of a film’s final rating.
Marketing for The Hitman’s Bodyguard has been decent in conveying the premise, but none of it has been particularly noteworthy – the film comes off as your average buddy comedy. Hitman’s Bodyguard’s other con is that its marquee stars (Reynolds and Jackson) aren’t necessarily box office draws. Reynolds’ two films post-Deadpool weren’t successful ventures – 2016’s Criminal grossed $14.7 million and this March’s Life grossed $30.2 million. Jackson’s lead roles as of late have either been straight-to-video joints (Tod Williams’ Cell) or relied on franchise value (Jordan Vogt-Roberts’ Kong: Skull Island). With all that said, comedies rely on known names, and Jackson and Reynolds fit that bill nicely. Pair that with a lack of competition, and Hitman’s Bodyguard should do okay, but not great, numbers.
Oh, and Lionsgate reports The Hitman’s Bodyguard cost a reasonable $30m to produce, so the movie will be fine if it opens in the high-teens.
Prediction: $17 million, #1 rank
Logan Lucky (Bleecker Street)
Steven Soderbergh returns to the director’s chair with Logan Lucky, an action-comedy that boasts a smattering of stars – Daniel Craig, Channing Tatum, Hilary Swank, Seth MacFarlane, and many others. Logan Lucky’s critical reception has been glowing, with a 93% rating on Rotten Tomatoes (avg. critic score being 7.6/10 from over 40 reviews). Lucky currently has a 6.4/10 score on IMDb from over 300 ratings, which means this may be a film that clicks with critics but not with the public.
Marketing for Logan Lucky has been surprisingly low, considering its cast, but Soderbergh has planned a campaign that isn’t meant to create big opening grosses; rather, it is meant to create “awareness” (per Deadline). Soderbergh has been no stranger to criticising the typical studio marketing model, thus it’ll be interesting to see if his strategy pays off here, especially as another action-comedy enters the market with Lucky.
Bleecker Street is handling the release of Logan Lucky, opening the film in an estimated 2,500 venues. The distributor’s highest-grossing title to date is 2016’s Eye in the Sky, which grossed $18.7 million in North America. If Logan Lucky posts a similar per-theatre average to Martin McDonagh’s Seven Psychopaths (another acclaimed comedy with relatively low exposure), it will open with $7.1 million. Given its cast, odds are Logan Lucky opens above that. It is reported that Lucky cost $29m to produce, so an opening above $10m would put the film on pace for a decent run.
Prediction: $8.5 million, #3 rank
HOLDOVERS
2. Annabelle: Creation (Warner Bros.) – $15.8 million (-55%), $64.3m cume
4. Dunkirk (Warner Bros.) – $7.6 million (-30%), $166.3m cume
5. The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature (Open Road) – $4.4 million (-47%), $16.6m cume
6. Girls Trip (Universal) – $3.9 million (-40%), $103.8m cume
7. Spider-Man: Homecoming (Sony) – $3.7 million (-39%), $313.5m cume
8. The Dark Tower (Sony) – $3.3 million (-58%), $40.7m cume
9. The Emoji Movie (Sony) – $3.2 million (-51%), $69.9m cume
10. The Glass Castle (Lionsgate) – $2.7 million (-42%), $9.7m cume
Thanks for reading this weekend’s box office forecast, and be sure to stay tuned for box office numbers.
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