Weekend Box Office Predictions: Crazy Rich Asians Eyeing Crazy Rich Opening

This month’s been at least slightly adventurous, giving us a very expensive giant shark movie earning over $45 million and… that’s kind of it, but that’s also kind of good enough for me. Alas.

 

Alpha (Sony)

I’ve expressed my chagrin for live-action dog movies once before and most things about Alpha don’t change that – cheesy feel-good marketing, primarily. But apparently it’s not bad, which is as good a ringing endorsement as any.

The premise for Alpha, in which a young man befriends a canine for the first time, is fine enough. The budget for this thing is a reported $80 million, probably its biggest drawback. Sony’s delayed Alpha three times (was initially supposed to come out September 2017). Normally not a big issue, but the trailer linked above came out in July 2017, a.k.a. most interest it drummed up is most likely dissipated at this point.

Alpha’s theater count, 2,719, doesn’t scream blockbuster figures, and thus far it doesn’t seem like Sony anticipates blockbuster figures either. Hopefully this’ll find some life in the post-theatrical market.

Prediction: $10 million, #5 rank

 

Crazy Rich Asians (Warner Bros.)

Spectacularly bad title aside, Crazy Rich Asians supposedly represents something of a resurgence of the rom-com, given its fantastic reception. Can that translate into equally fantastic box office numbers?

Most signs point to yes. It’s hard to think of any wide release movie catering to Asian demographics in the last… ever, really. The fact it’s apparently really good is just the cherry on top. Crazy Rich Asians also has the luxury of being an adaptation of a best-selling novel, so there’s that. The movie opened to a fine $5.01 million on Wednesday – a good figure, certainly, especially for a movie with a relatively modest $30m budget, but not something suggesting a breakout smash.

Still, not everything needs to be a breakout smash.

Prediction: $20 million (3-day, #2 rank), $28 million (5-day)

 

Mile 22 (STX)

Mark Wahlberg and Peter Berg are a frequent pairing, with their grosses consecutively declining – 2013’s Lone Survivor was a surprise hit with $125.1m, 2016’s $110m-budgeted Deepwater Horizon flubbed with $61.4m, and 2016’s awards contender, the $45m Patriots Day, marked a low with $31.89m. So this begs the question of where Mile 22 will land.

For starters, Mile 22 is reportedly the worst of Wahlberg-Berg’s collaborations, so we’re off on the right foot. Conversely, the movie is playing on IMAX and other premium screens and the movie’s a high-concept action flick, something more easily digestible than the real-life tales of Deepwater Horizon and Patriots Day.

Luckily, Mile 22 came in on the cheap side, costing $35m to produce. Deepwater managed $20.22m in its debut. It’s doubtful (yet still possible!) Mile 22 will match that, given its less-than-stellar reception, but it ought to come close. STX is already planning a sequel, apparently. While that’s very preemptive, it speaks to some level of confidence at least.

Prediction: $16 million, #3 rank

 

HOLDOVERS

1. The Meg (Warner Bros.) – $22.7 million (-50%), $85.2m cume
4. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (Paramount) – $12.6 million (-35%), $182.8m cume
6. Christopher Robin (Disney) – $8.4 million (-35%), $66.4m cume
7. BlacKkKlansman (Focus) – $7 million (-35%), $22.6m cume
8. Slender Man (Sony) – $4.5 million (-60%), $20.2m cume
9. Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again (Universal) – $4.1 million (-30%), $111.8m cume
10. The Spy Who Dumped Me (Lionsgate) – $3.6 million (-45%), $31m cume