Weekend Box Office Predictions: Hey, a Sicario Sequel

Sicario 2

We’ve been ever so blessed to have two tentpole blockbusters in just as many weeks, so it kind of makes sense to have a respite. Or, to the lay – both movies this week aren’t going to pull terrific numbers.

 

Sicario: Day of the Soldado (Sony)

When news broke that a sequel was being pushed for Denis Villeneuve’s fantastic Sicario, sans Villeneuve and leading lady Emily Blunt, my reaction was somewhere between “why the fuck?” and “why not.” That sentiment hasn’t veered too much since.

Not to say the movie won’t be half-way decent, because apparently it is. It’s just difficult to imagine many were hungry for a Sicario sequel, especially when that movie wasn’t a box office blowout, earning $46.89m domestically/$84.87m globally off a $30m production cost. Day of the Soldado has some perks, primarily the goodwill from its predecessor, plus the return of Benicio del Toro and Josh Brolin (and screenwriter Taylor Sheridan, just to keep things consistent). And trailers – by the by, don’t watch the one above if you’re spoiler-sensitive – give Soldado a more action-y vibe, so at least there’s some attempt to branch out to a wider demographic, grim subject matter notwithstanding.

Overall, there’s a bit of competition Soldado will have to contend with, but it can squeeze in fine as an adult-skewing flick compared to the more four-quadrant titles of late. With a $35m production cost, it doesn’t need to improve substantially over Sicario. Good thing, too, as it probably won’t.

Though stranger things have happened.

Prediction: $15 million, #3 rank

 

Uncle Drew (Lionsgate)

Not to be an immediate buzzkill, but the average for a wide release basketball movie, according to Box Office Mojo, is $28m. So, like, not great. The average for a wide release sports comedy, however, is slightly better with $35.5m. Whether that’ll make Uncle Drew comparatively impressive or disappointing remains to be seen, but it has a decent enough chance of eclipsing that figure.

Main reason for that being it has a solid cast – NBA all-star Kyrie Irving (I know shit about the NBA, but it’s a thing), Shaq, Tiffany Haddish, etc. – and it’s a fine piece of counterprogramming. Reception is limited but somewhat fleeting thus far, but Uncle Drew has a leg-up given it’s based on the Pepsi digital series with 150m+ views back in 2012. Whether this is a bonus or a “few years too late” situation also remains to be seen.

This is a tough one to gauge. Tracking has Uncle Drew pegged at $11m-$15m over its debut. Somewhere in the middle sounds like a safe bet.

Prediction: $13 million, #4 rank

 

HOLDOVERS

Source: Universal

1. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (Universal) – $66.6 million (-55%), $276.4m cume
2. Incredibles 2 (Disney) – $44.2 million (-45%), $433.6m cume
5. Ocean’s 8 (Warner Bros.) – $6.9 million (-40%), $112.9m cume
6. Tag (Warner Bros.) – $4.9 million (-40%), $39.6m cume
7. Deadpool 2 (Fox) – $3.2 million (-40%), $309.9m cume
8. Solo: A Star Wars Story (Disney) – $2.5 million (-45%), $207.2m cume
9. Hereditary (A24) – $2 million (-45%), $39m cume
10. Superfly (Sony) – $1.9 million (-45%), $18.9m cume

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