Weekend Box Office Predictions: Close Encounters Reissue, Tulip Fever Opens

If you thought the box office last weekend was miserable, brace yourself. This weekend, only two new (well, one is technically 40 years old, but alas) releases open over the Labour Day frame. Let’s rummage through the inevitable financial debris here.

 

Close Encounters of the Third Kind (Reissue) (Sony)

Here is the upside to the re-release of Steven Spielberg’s Close Encounters of the Third Kind – the film, adjusted for inflation, has grossed $494.07 million in North America. The other upside is that it is Close Encounters’ 40th anniversary, so this doesn’t come off as a mere cash grab. The downside is that reissues don’t tend to break out unless there’s a hook to them (think Disney’s 3D re-release of The Lion King), plus I just don’t believe there’s much of an audience willing to head to the theatre for this.

The 3D reissue of James Cameron’s Terminator 2: Judgment Day (supervised by Cameron himself, no less), grossed $552,773 from 371 theatres. If we take that per-theatre average ($1,490) and apply it to Close Encounters’ 700 theatre count, it’ll make $1.04 million over the 3-day weekend (and somewhere around $1.3 million for the 4-day). There’s a chance Close Encounters will gross over/under that amount, but considering how low those numbers are it won’t quite make a difference overall.

With all that said, studios don’t put much on the line for re-releases, so Sony shouldn’t be distraught if this sinks.

Prediction: $1 million (3-day), $1.2 million (4-day), #12 rank

 

Tulip Fever (Weinstein Company)

The Weinstein Company has been suffering financial hardships of late, with their newest releases Wind River ($11.38m thus far) and Leap! ($5.79m thus far) providing little in the way of relief. Weinstein’s latest title, Justin Chadwick’s Tulip Fever, looks unlikely to buck the studio’s downward trend. The 17th-century romantic drama starring Alicia Vikander, Christoph Waltz, and Dane DeHaan has little-to-no buzz, and the only measure for the film’s reception is its “meh” 6.4/10 on IMDb from 700+ ratings. There are only two reviews for Tulip Fever on Rotten Tomatoes, one of which states: “One you’ll want to expunge from your mind as quickly as possible” (David Jenkins, Little White Lies). So there’s that.

Truth be told, every aspect of Tulip Fever’s release reeks of Weinstein looking to dump the film and get it over with. Initially set for a limited release, Tulip Fever was then slated for a 600+ theatre release earlier this month. Taking that and its lack of press screenings into account, it’s obvious Weinstein’s trying to milk as much money from Tulip Fever as they can before it disappears from theatres (also known as “cutting losses”).

Prediction: $600,000 (3-day), $750,000 (4-day), #20 rank

 

HOLDOVERS

1. The Hitman’s Bodyguard (Lionsgate) – $7 million (3-day, -32%), $8.7 million (4-day), $53.3m cume
2. Annabelle: Creation (Warner Bros./New Line) – $4 million (3-day, -48%), $4.8 million (4-day), $86.4m cume
3. Dunkirk (Warner Bros.) – $2.8 million (3-day, -29%), $3.4 million (4-day), $178m cume
4. Wind River (Weinstein) – $2.8 million (3-day, -39%), $3.3 million (4-day), $16m cume
5. Logan Lucky (Bleecker Street) – $2.5 million (3-day, -40%), $2.9 million (4-day), $19.9m cume
6. Leap! (Weinstein) – $2.1 million (3-day, -55%), $2.4 million (4-day), $9m cume
7. Spider-Man: Homecoming (Sony) – $1.9 million (3-day, -33%), $2.2 million (4-day), $322.6m cume
8. Girls Trip (Universal) – $1.5 million (3-day, -35%), $1.7 million (4-day), $110.9m cume
9. The Emoji Movie (Sony) – $1.4 million (3-day, -44%), $1.7 million (4-day), $79.5m cume
10. The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature (Open Road) – $1.4 million (3-day, -39%), $1.7 million (4-day), $25.4m cume

That’s all for this weekend’s forecast. Thanks for reading, and check back on Tuesday for 4-day weekend numbers (and happy Labour Day!).