November has gotten off to a pretty terrific start, with majority thanks going to Disney/Marvel’s Thor: Ragnarok (which is certain to top this weekend as well). Ragnarok’s $122.74 million debut is far out of reach for the new releases, though they ought to fare somewhat fine on their own terms. Predictions are below.
Daddy’s Home 2 (Paramount)
Last weekend, STX’s A Bad Moms Christmas opened with $21.29 million over 5 days, below its hit predecessor’s $23.82m 3-day debut. Bad Moms Christmas’ debut served as a valuable lesson – if you’re going to sequelize a surprise hit, you’ll learn that there better be a damn good reason to revisit the series, or worse, that surprise was lightning in a bottle. Aaaaand one week later, we have Paramount’s Daddy’s Home 2, a negatively-received sequel to a surprise hit.
When I say negative, I mean a 0% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes (avg. critic score being 3.3/10 from >20 reviews). Conversely, the movie holds a relatively decent 6.8/10 score on IMDb, with the caveat that’s from <150 ratings. And to be fair, folks weren’t exactly fond of the first flick (31% Rotten Tomatoes rating, 6.1/10 IMDb score). That’s a mild silver lining, though, as that lack of goodwill doesn’t help Daddy’s Home 2.
What does help Daddy’s Home 2 is that its predecessor grossed $150.36m domestically/$242.79m globally back in 2015, facing off against Disney/Lucasfilm’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens. However, it’s worth noting that Daddy’s Home was kind of the only thing broadly appealing to families that wasn’t Star Wars; the Tina Fey/Amy Poehler comedy Sisters wasn’t exactly good for children and Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip marked a franchise that had run its course (plus it aimed more for younger kids). Will Ferrell and Mark Wahlberg are also familiar faces with a rapport in the comedy world. All of those elements, plus the usual holiday legs, helped make Daddy’s Home into the hit it was.
Daddy’s Home 2 has significantly less going for it. There’s no novelty factor, it has yet to receive a positive review, and it’ll have its audience swept up by Warner Bros./DC’s Justice League, Sony’s The Star, and Disney/Pixar’s Coco in the next two weeks. Thor: Ragnarok is still a noticeable presence, too. Folks have plenty of options on their plate and I doubt Daddy’s Home 2 will be a top pick. Paramount better thank their lucky stars for Will Ferrell and Mark Wahlberg, otherwise this would be quite the bust. A good comparison here would be the Paul Blart: Mall Cop series – the first film was popular (not with critics, but still), grossing $146.34m, whereas the second was utterly panned yet managed $71.04m off a $23.76m debut. A sharp comedown, absolutely, but not a failure. As much as Paramount needs a hit these days, this isn’t the movie that’ll deliver, but they can take solace in that it won’t be another flop.
Oh, I see Daddy’s Home 2 cost $69m to produce. Maybe… maybe scratch that.
Prediction:Â $24 million, #2 rank
Murder on the Orient Express (Fox)
Kenneth Branagh directs the latest adaptation of Agatha Christie’s Murder on the Orient Express, taking a star-studded cast along for the ride. Old-fashioned mystery in a wintery setting during a wintery month sounds like a swell time.
Reception for Orient Express has been mixed-to-positive, notching a 65% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes (avg. critic score being 6.2/10 from >110 reviews) and a 6.7/10 score on IMDb from >4,000 ratings. The consensus appears that the movie’s not a revelation, but it’s an entertaining romp. The issue here is that a movie like this needs excellent notices to break out, otherwise it’ll fall into the “okay” financial category or outright bomb if we are so unfortunate. Fox spent a responsible $55m on the picture and they have a fantastic international foothold, which can only benefit a stylish production such as Orient Express.
It would be surprising if Murder on the Orient Express derailed (get it? Because it’s a train and I hate myself), more so than if it did break out. There’s a healthy chance it’ll be spared such a fate, thanks to a plethora of familiar faces and strong source material.
Prediction:Â $20 million, #3 rank
HOLDOVERS
1. Thor: Ragnarok (Disney) – $55.2 million (-55%), $208.97m cume
4. A Bad Moms Christmas (STX) – $9.2 million (-45%), $37.16m cume
5. Jigsaw (Lionsgate) – $3 million (-55%), $33.85m cume
6. Boo 2! A Madea Halloween (Lionsgate) – $2 million (-55%), $45.8m cume
7. Geostorm (Warner Bros.) – $1.9 million (-40%), $31.95m cume
8. Blade Runner 2049 (Warner Bros.) – $1.5 million (-35%), $88.08m cume
9. Let There Be Light (Atlas) – $1.4 million (-15%), $6.21m cume
10. Happy Death Day (Universal) – $1.2 million (-55%), $54.79m cume
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