2019 Oscars at a Glance: First BAFTA Nomination Predictions

Which direction might BAFTA go for their nominations?

Mary Poppins Returns

Of the major predictors at the Oscars outside of the guilds, the one show I have left to predict is the British Academy of Film and Television Awards, better known as BAFTA. There’s always a bit of a question mark around this show, too, because certain films like Dallas Buyers Club and Fences, which play very well over in the States, do not score well with the voters of BAFTA, and sometimes a film does not open in time, disqualifying it from being nominated. So far, it seems like everything that’s in play at the Oscars will also be in consideration at BAFTA, so I’m going to go off of that and go down the top categories for the first predictions article. We’ll get more into it when we get closer to the nominations announcement on January 9th.

 

Best Animated Feature

Seemingly, the feel around the prognosticating world is that the five films nominated by the Golden Globes and the six at the Critics Choice, minus The Grinch, will repeat at BAFTA as well as the Oscars. So again, those films are Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Mirai, and Ralph Breaks the Internet. If anything else knocks these films out, The Grinch is a likely bet.

 

Best Adapted Screenplay

For the most part, I’m going to keep my Oscar predictions pretty close with BAFTA as well, but with one exception. For the five nominees here, I’m thinking BlacKkKlansman, If Beale Street Could Talk, A Star is Born, Can You Ever Forgive Me, and Widows. While Widows has been disappointing across the board, since it’s based on a British TV show, I feel the BAFTA voting body may be friendlier to it than everyone else. I could be off, but for now that’s what my gut’s telling me.

 

Best Original Screenplay

This category may differ from the Oscars in a significant way. I feel a few scripts are locks, like The Favourite, Green Book, and Vice. One script I’m going to throw in here that I don’t have in at the Oscars is Bohemian Rhapsody. Number one, it’s been over-performing like crazy at SAG and Globes, and it’s a biopic about a British band, so I feel it’ll do well over here, too. I’ll go with Roma for the fifth slot.

 

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

With Regina King missing out on the SAG nom for If Beale Street Could Talk, there is now a question of her being the new Sylvester Stallone, who got nominated at the Globes, Critics Choice, and Oscars for Creed, but his misses at SAG and BAFTA are what prevented him from winning the Oscar, if the precursors are a true reflection of the Oscar voting body. That being said, I still have her in for the nomination here. I also see Claire Foy making it in for First Man, and both Rachel Weisz and Emma Stone being nominated for The Favourite, but Margot Robbie’s nomination at SAG breathes new life into this race, and since Mary Queen of Scots almost stereotypically signals better odds at BAFTA, I’m putting her in for now, leaving Amy Adams out in the cold. I feel she’s still a definite possibility, and I’m keeping Amy in at the Oscars, and I’m not ready to put Margot in at the Oscars. Nicole Kidman also has a shot at recognition, too, for Boy Erased.

 

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

I’m just gonna go with my instincts here and predict a repeat of the five nominees at SAG, who also line up with my Oscar five: Mahershala Ali for Green Book, Timothee Chalamet for Beautiful Boy, Richard E. Grant for Can You Ever Forgive Me, Adam Driver for BlacKkKlansman, and Sam Elliott for A Star is Born. I’ll leave some room for Michael B. Jordan (Black Panther), Sam Rockwell (Vice), and I’ll put a note out there for Nicholas Hoult (The Favourite) as other possibilities here at BAFTA.

 

Best Actress in a Leading Role

While I made a note earlier to not discount Widows, I’m not going to predict Viola Davis here, mainly because of her big misses across the board over the last week. I look over the rest of the outside-looking-in contenders, like Yalitza Aparricio in Roma, Nicole Kidman in Destroyer, and Toni Collette in Hereditary, I’m not ready to push my chips in on one of these ladies getting in. If there is one outside-looking-in contender I’ll consider way more than the others, it’s Saoirse Ronan in Mary Queen of Scots, but again I’m not ready to pull the trigger on her getting in over Glenn Close (The Wife), Lady Gaga (A Star is Born), Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me), Olivia Colman (The Favourite), and Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns). I may change my mind on that later, but for now the five SAG nominees are my picks here, too.

 

Best Actor in a Leading Role

This is another category where I feel most of my Oscar picks will cross over, in particular Christian Bale for Vice, Rami Malek for Bohemian Rhapsody, Viggo Mortensen for Green Book, and Bradley Cooper for A Star is Born. Who that fifth nominee will be, both at the Oscars and here, is still a question I’m mulling over. For now, at BAFTA, I’m predicting Willem Dafoe to make it in for his portrayal of Vincent Van Gogh in At Eternity’s Gate, and he has a lot in his corner with nominations at the Globes and Critics Choice. John David Washington is definitely a threat for BlacKkKlansman, and like Daniel Kaluuya last year for Get Out, if he continues at BAFTA, that will seal his slot for the Oscars, too. I’ve also got Ryan Gosling down as a possible nominee at BAFTA for First Man.

 

Best Director

The director category, for me, is one where I can sense a shift away from where the Oscars are heading. I’m still thinking Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born), Alfonso Cuaron (Roma), and Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite) make it in for sure. I’m not as confident in my Oscar winner pick, Spike Lee for BlacKkKlansman, but for now I’ll put him on the list. My fifth pick is actually going to be Rob Marhsall for Mary Poppins Returns. While Marshall was not on the list of seven nominees at Critics Choice, and he didn’t get a Globe nom, either, I feel since Poppins is a British icon, the voting body will go for it. I’m not gonna sign over my life on a bet like that, but I’ll also say Adam McKay is a good bet for Vice, as is Peter Farrelly for Green Book, and maybe Barry Jenkins for If Beale Street Could Talk.

 

Best Film

With only five nominees in this category, it’ll be a bit of work to whittle down the dozen or so films I’m wrestling with as possible nominees. For now, I think A Star is Born, The Favourite, Green Book, and Roma can’t miss. I can see BlacKkKlansman, Black Panther, If Beale Street Could Talk, and a few others missing out, and films like Bohemian Rhapsody and Mary Poppins Returns are going to fight it out, too. I think one of these two get in, and for now I’m going to pick Bohemian.

Keep in mind there is also the Best British Film category, and so far my research points me toward The Favourite as being a lock to be nominated since it was produced in the U.K. Mary Queen of Scots, Mary Poppins Returns, and Bohemian Rhapsody might also be players there, but I’ll do some further research to see if they truly qualify or not. Colette is another film I’m seeing as a possible nom there, as well as the Oscar Wilde biopic The Happy Prince, but again, I’ll need some further investigating to see if these are just me throwing out names or if they are legitimate contenders.

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