Here we go. It’s about to get very real for the awards season. The Golden Globes mark the first big industry awards ceremony, where the voters now begin to overlap with the Academy and their thinking. The insights of the Academy begin to show up, casting shadows of doubt on all our previous predictions, making us turn left or right to new competitors and sleeper nominees. It’s also where our early bets pay off or turn to dust. That may sound a little over-dramatic, but there have been many previous examples of the Globes, Screen Actors Guild, and Critics Choice nominations turning the awards season on its head. We’ll see if that happens again this year, or if the early critics prizes have begun to show us what lies ahead. We’ll go down the film categories and sort out who will be nominated on Thursday morning.
Best Foreign Language Film
Beginning with a category I have not predicted before in a Globes article, let’s jump right in and see how badly I screw this up. In the past, when predicting the categories, I have listed them from most likely to be nominated to least likely, but going forward, I am going to predict them alphabetically, so keep that in mind with all the categories. So, by my odds, the nominees in this category will be:
Border (Sweden) Cold War (Poland) Roma (Mexico) Shoplifters (Japan) The Guilty (Denmark)
A little additional commentary here: Roma will not be eligible in the Film: Drama category, so the big place to award it will be here, so there’s no doubt it doesn’t make it in. Cold War has been nothing but hot at most of the critics groups so far, so don’t count that one out. Shoplifters was the Palme d’Or winner at Cannes this year, so that’s one to keep in mind. The other two are being bounced around as likely Oscar nominees, and usually the Globes like to keep it pretty close to the eventual Oscar lineup.
Best Original Song
This category seems to be one where we know who the winner will be, but filling out the other four nominees could be a challenge. For the Globes on Thursday, I’m going with the following as your nominees:
“Requiem for A Private War” from A Private War “Shallow” from A Star is Born “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns “Finally Free” from Smallfoot “Wrapped Up” from Vox Lux
A couple of changes in this category for me. Looking back at the La La Land year, only one song made it in. I’d assume the same will be true for A Star is Born, so that’s why I’ve dropped that down to one nominee. Mary Poppins and Vox Lux seem like safe bets to me, and usually an animated song gets in, so I’m thinking it’s either “Finally Free” or “A Place Called Slaughter Race” from Ralph Breaks the Internet. The Private War song is by Annie Lennox, who took the Globe in 2004 for “Into the West” from Return of the King. I see her making a welcome return to the Globes and maybe the Oscars, too.
Best Original Score
The nominees here will be:
Crazy Rich Asians First Man If Beale Street Could Talk Isle of Dogs Mary Poppins Returns
I’m swapping out Hans Zimmer for Alexandre Desplat. I get a feeling now that Widows is not going to go over well with the Hollywood Foreign Press. Otherwise, Justin Horowitz seems like he’ll win his second Globe for First Man, and the other ones seem likely bets to me.
Best Animated Feature
No changes from last time. The five will be:
Incredibles 2 Isle of Dogs Ralph Breaks the Internet Smallfoot Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Interesting to note that the early reviews for Spider-Verse are among the highest acclaims of the year for any film, so if there’s a real groundswell through the next few weeks, Pixar and co. might have some tighter competition than expected.
I’ve been happy with my picks through the season. I’m not changing course now. The five will be:
BlacKkKlansman Green Book If Beale Street Could Talk The Favourite Vice
Keep in mind, if we see something break into this category like A Star is Born, Roma, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Eighth Grade, or First Reformed, that will give us an idea of where the Globes are headed.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
This category has proved to be more difficult in the past few weeks than I initially speculated. We’ll see if the Globes have any twists and turns away from my five predicted nominees:
Amy Adams, Vice Claire Foy, First Man Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk Emma Stone, The Favourite Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
A wild card that could screw up by rankings here would be Michelle Yeoh for Crazy Rich Asians. Other than her and Nicole Kidman for Boy Erased, I’m thinking these could be the five ladies we see fill this category across the rest of the precursors leading up to the Oscars.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
With all the critics lists pouring in and a seemingly new choice in this category every time, this category I now consider the most fluid race. I do have a change to make here. The five gentlemen receiving nominations will be:
Mahershala Ali, Green Book Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman Sam Elliott, A Star is Born Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
I’m finally biting the bullet and putting in Sam Elliott. I felt his low screen time would hurt him, but after a win at both National Board of Review and the Atlanta Film Critics Circle, I suspect he’ll break through regardless. So much for my theory about Sam Rockwell being the first back-to-back winner in two decades plus.
Best Actress: Comedy/Musical
A change here as well. One candidate who wasn’t previously on our radar has been shining strong lately, and I get the feeling now she won’t be denied the morning of the Globes. My final predicted nominees are:
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns Olivia Colman, The Favourite Regina Hall, Support the Girls Charlize Theron, Tully Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians
I’m swapping in Regina Hall for Kathryn Hahn after the big win at New York Film Critics Circle. I’m also gonna be really disappointed in myself if Hahn comes back in and kicks out either Wu or Theron. And don’t leave out Elsie Fisher in Eighth Grade, who might also break back in.
Best Actor: Comedy/Musical
A category change forces a change here, so my revised list of nominees are:
Christian Bale, Vice Lin Manuel-Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns Viggo Mortensen, Green Book Robert Redford, The Old Man and the Gun Nick Robinson, Love, Simon
Now that The Sisters Brothers has been switched over to the drama race, that leaves John C. Reilly out. I put in Nick Robinson because I can’t really think of anyone else I see getting in over him. I’ve got the only other possibilities whittled down to Steve Carell for Welcome to Marwen, John C. Reilly for Stan and Ollie, and Lakeith Stanfield for Sorry to Bother You.
Best Actress: Drama
Another change in this category, and this time I’ve got a bit of a heart-stopper, but I have a good feeling about it. My five are:
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma Glenn Close, The Wife Lady Gaga, A Star is Born Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? Natalie Portman, Vox Lux
In a big category change, Natalie Portman was lifted out of the supporting race by HFPA and is now not only competing in lead, but the punk rock musical has been deemed a drama. They went out of their way to announce that, which made me stop and think. The last time they did that was two years ago. Viggo Mortensen had been thought to be listed under the Comedy/Musical category for his work in Captain Fantastic, but just a few days before the nominations were announced, a press release revealed he would be competing in the drama race. And lo and behold, he was on the list of nominees that morning, much to the shock of myself and many other prognosticators. So I’m not making that mistake again.
Portman might be a gimme. I removed Saoirse Ronan for Mary Queen of Scots since that one is still not tracking well among the Oscar voting circles, and since I see Widows being shafted, I removed Viola Davis in favor of Yalitza Aparicio, who has been playing a good ground game, and as a Netflix film, they usually want to get at least one or two acting nominees from a Netflix film. She seems like a good bet to me. There is still some uncertainty in this category, so we could see Davis, Ronan, or the likes of Julia Roberts (Ben is Back), Rosamund Pike (A Private War), or even Toni Collette (Hereditary), who surprised with her Gotham win.
Best Actor: Drama
The leading men in dramas this year also proves to be a diverse, tricky category to predict. That being said, here are my five:
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born Ryan Gosling, First Man Ethan Hawke, First Reformed Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
My only change from last time is swapping out Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate) for Ethan Hawke. I’m just sensing he’ll get in everywhere. Again, there’s quite a bit of competition here. Dafoe has a shot of popping up, as does the likes of Lucas Hedges for Boy Erased, and John David Washington for BlacKkKlansman.
I’m feeling these five nominees will be the selected directors to make the cut. They are:
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born Alfonso Cuaron, Roma Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
These five have all had a pretty good track record of being swimming in the pool of potential nominees all year, but realistically there’s no guarantee they’ll all make it in. I’ll throw a bone to Peter Farrelly (Green Book) and Adam McKay (Vice), two comedy guys who could mix up the mostly drama-led category, and also Damien Chazelle (First Man) could sneak in there. Or if Mary Poppins really goes over, Rob Marshall may make a big splash.
Best Motion Picture: Comedy/Musical
Almost from the start, I’ve had these five films making it in. Now’s where that either stays true or all falls apart. The five films will be:
Crazy Rich Asians Green Book Mary Poppins Returns The Favourite Vice
These five feel very likely to me. I don’t see a ton of wiggle room here, with the exception of Eighth Grade, which could bounce back big Thursday.
Best Motion Picture: Drama
There is one change in this category and it may surprise you. The five films I think that will be selected are:
A Star is Born BlacKkKlansman Can You Ever Forgive Me? First Man If Beale Street Could Talk
Something like First Reformed could genuinely surprise here since it has been doing pretty well with critics prizes thus far. Also, keep an eye out for Black Panther pulling a solo nod for Best Film and nothing else, but I feel if they’re going to go for that one, it would have to land a bunch of other nods. I don’t see it in the cards, though.
As soon as the nominations are announced Thursday, I’ll let you know where I was right, where I went disastrously wrong, and what lies ahead. Keep your ear to the grindstone.
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