Weekend Box Office Predictions: Incredible Things to Come
As if you care about any other movie this year.
Last weekend was pretty decent, offering up a successful franchise reboot/spin-off in Warner Bros.’ Ocean’s 8 and a successful horror offering in A24’s Hereditary (and an utter bomb in Global Road’s Hotel Artemis, but we can, uh, slide that under the rug). There’s a pretty big movie vying for your attention this weekend, though.
Incredibles 2 (Disney)
Finally, a non-Toy Story Pixar sequel that people actually asked for. Incredibles 2, with writer/director/voice actor of Edna (fun fact!) Brad Bird returning to the director’s chair, has a fair chance at eclipsing the animation opening record set by 2016’s Finding Dory ($135.06m). This is good news for all, and especially Disney, who’s still probably coming to terms with the failure of last month’s Solo: A Star Wars Story.
It’s difficult to imagine a scenario where Incredibles 2 doesn’t do well. Reception is glowing, with Incredibles 2 notching a 95% rating on Rotten Tomatoes (avg. critic score being 8.2/10 from >80 reviews) and a 9.2/10 on IMDb (from >1,100 ratings). Word has it that it’s closer to Toy Story 2 quality than Dory, which can only help it. Numbers-wise, 2004’s The Incredibles opened with $70.47m on its way to $261.44m. Finding Dory’s opening marked a +92.3% increase over Finding Nemo‘s $70.25m debut, which would give Incredibles 2 a solid $135.5m if it were to follow a similar pattern. A number around there would be in range if it were to have a Toy Story 2-Toy Story 3 increase as well.
Just by virtue of being an anticipated sequel since the first film’s release (the ending clearly hinted at one) and the first major family movie in a while, I’m bullish on Incredibles 2’s prospects. Plus, superhero movies are all the rage these days, no?
Prediction: $145 million, #1 rank
Director X’s Superfly is an interesting thing – it’s a remake of a blaxploitation film updated for contemporary times. Issue here being I haven’t heard much buzz for it at all and it clearly sought to avoid Incredibles 2’s storm by opening yesterday.
What’s helpful about Superfly opening already is that it’s much easier to peg. The movie has a lukewarm 56% rating on Rotten Tomatoes (avg. critic score being 5.4/10 from >40 reviews) and a poor 5.2/10 score on IMDb, though that’s from an unreliably small base (>70 ratings). Still, reception hasn’t been great. It’d be easier to get an idea of the film’s potential based on its Wednesday gross, but thus far the $16m picture (very responsible budget, by the way) isn’t shaping up to make much of a dent.
Prediction: $8 million, #6 rank
Tag (Warner Bros.)
Jeff Tomsic’s Tag follows a group of friends who have played… tag, if that wasn’t obvious, for an awfully long time and one friend who’s never been “it” may be about to quit.
It’s such a ridiculous plot when read aloud it’s kind of a shame the movie’s supposedly not good, gathering a 40% on Rotten Tomatoes, though from just 5 reviews so that’s subject to change. Tag, based on the trailers, strikes one as R-rated comedy boilerplate, starring a handful of familiar faces with a healthy dose of raunch thrown in. If this were releasing 5-10 years ago, yeah, I could see this being fairly successful. But R-rated comedies have been on a decline lately, with even Warner’s praised Game Night this March earning an okay $68.98m (though it was leggy, given it opened to $17.01m).
Tag might serve as an okay adult alternative to Incredibles 2, but I can’t see a scenario where it truly overperforms. Luckily, it was made for a relatively modest $28m, so it doesn’t necessarily have to.
Prediction: $15 million, #3 rank
2. Ocean’s 8 (Warner Bros.) – $20.8 million (-50%), $81.3m cume
4. Solo: A Star Wars Story (Disney) – $8.7 million (-45%), $192.4m cume
5. Deadpool 2 (Fox) – $8.5 million (-40%), $293.8m cume
7. Hereditary (A24) – $6.8 million (-50%), $26.4m cume
8. Avengers: Infinity War (Disney) – $4.7 million (-35%), $663.5m cume
9. Book Club (Paramount) – $2.8 million (-35%), $62.5m cume
10. Adrift (STX) – $2.6 million (-50%), $27.2m cume