Weekend Box Office Predictions: Avengers Will Be Life of the Party

Avengers Infinity War

Another weekend, another dominant Disney market share. This is the last weekend before Avengers: Infinity War faces its biggest competition thus far, Fox’s Deadpool 2, so savour its first-place finishes while they last. In the interim, we have a Melissa McCarthy comedy and a Gabrielle Union thriller vying for your attention.

 

Breaking In (Universal)

Producer Will Packer’s last thriller, No Good Deed, was a decent hit for Sony back in 2014, opening with $24.25 million on its way to a $52.54 million finish. That said, No Good Deed didn’t have to contend with a busy summer marketplace, nor an Avengers movie. So we can reasonably assume that Breaking In, following a mother (Gabrielle Union) protecting her children as burglars invade her deceased father’s mansion, won’t match No Good Deed.

Union’s last prominent role was in 2017’s Sleepless, opposite Jamie Foxx, which fizzled with $20.78 million. Despite that, Breaking In benefits from having a decently high-concept plot and history suggests thrillers oriented towards African-American audiences do well – see also 2015’s The Perfect Guy ($25.89m opening/$57.03m final). On the social media front, Union leads with 1.1+ million Facebook followers and over 4 million Twitter followers, and she’s been doing her part to plug the movie. Also helping matters is the plot’s timeliness to Mother’s Day this Sunday (reminder, you’re welcome).

No reviews yet for Breaking In, but Will Packer’s movies tend to perform fine regardless of critical reception. No budget information either, but anything in the teen-millions should set Breaking In on a profitable course.

Prediction: $15 million, #3 rank

 

Life of the Party (Warner Bros.)

There’s a very easy, very efficient way to determine if the Melissa McCarthy movie hitting your local multiplex will be terrible, and that’s checking whether her husband (Ben Falcone) directed it. Her husband directed this weekend’s Life of the Party.

In all fairness, Falcone-McCarthy movies have generally been successful – 2014’s Tammy legged to $84.53m off a $21.58m debut, and 2016’s The Boss grossed $63.29m from a $23.59m debut, almost entirely off McCarthy’s goodwill and likability. Helping Life of the Party’s case is McCarthy’s $29.58m opening average for movies where she’s the primary selling point, though that may be somewhat muted considering this is her first film in nearly two years.

Tracking, as per Deadline, suggests Life of the Party will open between $18m-$21m, with the latter putting the movie in a comfortable position (production budget is reportedly in the low $30m range). Life of the Party opted for a PG-13 rating as opposed to McCarthy’s typical R stable house, presumably to take advantage of Mother’s Day, more so than last year’s Amy Schumer-Goldie Hawn comedy Snatched ($19.54m debut). As of this writing, there are no reviews for Life of the Party, not that McCarthy’s movies rely on critical approval. This’ll be fine financially, but there’s little chance it approaches McCarthy’s biggest box office hits.

Prediction: $20 million, #2 rank

 

HOLDOVERS

© Walt Disney Pictures

1. Avengers: Infinity War (Disney) – $63.1 million (-45%), $549m cume
4. Overboard (Lionsgate/Pantelion) – $6.6 million (-55%), $25.7m cume
5. A Quiet Place (Paramount) – $5 million (-35%), $168m cume
6. Rampage (Warner Bros.) – $3 million (-35%), $89.3m cume
7. I Feel Pretty (STX) – $2.8 million (-45%), $42.6m cume
8. Tully (Focus) – $2.1 million (-35%), $6.8m cume
9. Black Panther (Disney) – $1.8 million (-45%), $696m cume
10. Truth or Dare (Universal) – $1.1 million (-40%), $39.9m cume

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