Golden Globes 2019 Winner Predictions

Alas, the time has come for the 2019 Golden Globe Awards. The show is this Sunday, January 6th, and it’s our first preview of who is truly ahead in the Oscar race. A win at the Globes doesn’t always ensure victory going forward (ask Amy Adams, who has two Globe wins and no Oscar wins). However, it can set the stage for your eventual winners. Last year, five of the six big winners at the Oscars: the four acting races and director, all of whom won at Globes and going forward. Keep in mind there are a couple of keys to doing well at the Globes.

First, expect the unexpected. Some of the biggest shockers among winners in the whole awards season happen at the Globes. Some recent examples are Aaron Taylor-Johnson winning over Mahershala Ali for Supporting Actor 2 years ago, All is Lost winning Best Original Score over Gravity, and The Grand Budapest Hotel winning Best Film: Comedy/Musical over eventual Best Picture winner Birdman.

Second, the Globes love to spread the wealth among the different studios. Unless it’s a case of La La Land going seven for seven or One Flew over the Cuckoo’s Nest going six for six, every major studio that has a film or two in play gets to take something home. So with all of this in mind, let’s go ahead and predict what will go down on Sunday night with the Hollywood Foreign Press Association’s voting.

 

Best Foreign Language Film

And the winner will be…Roma

The whole conversation this year with this category is based on what will be nominated alongside this heavy favorite. Going back to my suggestion of expecting the unexpected, Roma could also be awarded for its script and/or direction, the latter being more likely, so if the HFPA feel like something like Shoplifters or Capernaum is worthy of the win here, they might reserve a win for Roma for one or both of the other categories, yet I feel Roma is the closest thing to a lock we’ll have at the Globes this year in this category.

 

Best Original Score

And the winner will be…Mary Poppins Returns

This category is a bit of a two-way race between Poppins and First Man, both of which are looking to be frontrunners at the Oscars as well. There is a shot for Ludwig Goransson’s score for Black Panther to split the vote and win, and that would give that film a win, but I don’t feel much love going toward Marvel’s most successful awards season player. What’s giving Poppins the edge in my opinion is it’s love in top categories like Film: Comedy/Musical, and Actor and Actress: Comedy/Musical, but since those other three categories, I feel, are going to other films, they’ll want to give Disney and co. something, and this may be the only place to do so.

 

Best Original Song

And the winner will be…“Shallow” from A Star is Born

Arguably another big lock for Sunday night is the song category, where Gaga may win her first Globe of the night. Might; she is also a big threat for Best Actress: Drama. Still, I’m thinking there’s not enough love for the other four competitors in this category, though “All the Stars” from Black Panther and “Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin prove to be the biggest takedown threats, particularly “Girl in the Movies”, co-written by Dolly Parton, and sometimes the Globes give the trophy to the person they want to see on stage at their show, and Dolly would be a hoot. However, I think the Globes also like to try to predict the Oscar winners in advance, and look pretty good when they get it right. Therefore, there’s no way they pass up Star is Born in this category.

 

Best Animated Feature

And the winner will be…Incredibles 2

While Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse has been lighting it up with critics and audiences lately, I feel Pixar and Incredibles 2 will be better liked by the HFPA. I think it’s down to these two, and whichever one wins will likely become to front runner going forward for the major prizes left.

 

Best Screenplay

And the winner will be…The Favourite

Fox Searchlight’s big player this year is The Favourite, and I feel the film will be awarded at least once by the HFPA, and this is one of those spots. It also has a large shot at winning Best Actress: Comedy/Musical for Olivia Colman. When you look at the other four nominees here, I don’t feel like Vice or Green Book have the momentum to win here, and since those two also are playing in the comedy races, they’ll likely split votes in this category and a few others.

 

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

And the winner will be…Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk

This is where I can safely predict that Annapurna Pictures will win this category. They have both Beale Street and Vice, and if King isn’t the winner, it’ll be Amy Adams for her portrayal of Lynne Cheney. I think the Globes will also help show us where the momentum is swinging. It’s no secret that Amy has gone 0/5 at the Oscars thus far, and losing for Vice would be another historic loss for her, putting her in the books alongside Thelma Ritter and Deborah Kerr, both of whom have six losses at the Oscars. Funny enough, at this moment, Glenn Close does, too, and a seventh loss at the Oscars would be history if she doesn’t take it home this year for The Wife. Adams will have the win at the Screen Actors Guild, where Regina King is not nominated, and a win here could help put Adams on track to win at the Oscars. However, Regina King has picked up virtually every critics prize thus far this year, and she’s still the front runner for the Oscar, too. This also presents an opportunity for Best Film: Drama nominee If Beale Street Could Talk to take home at least one award. It’s nominations in Film and Screenplay are likely going to be just that, and we’ve got some other films that are ahead in those categories. Another argument against Adams, and what helps me make my choice to predict King for the win, is that Adams already has two Golden Globes on her mantle for American Hustle and Big Eyes, and both of those were back-to-back and in recent years. Then again, the Globes did give Jennifer Lawrence three Globe wins in the space of four years (Silver Linings Playbook, American Hustle, and Joy). So there is precedence for an actress to win multiple Globes in a short amount of time.

 

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

And the winner will be…Mahershala Ali for Green Book

This is an opportunity to make up for a big miss by the Globes two years ago. When Mahershala Ali was the front runner for the Oscar for Moonlight, and it seemed like he was on a complete sweep of critics prizes and industry awards, he suddenly lost to Aaron Taylor-Johnson for Nocturnal Animals. While Richard E. Grant presents a formidable challenge with his absolutely winning performance in Can You Ever Forgive Me?, I think the I.O.U. factor with Mahershala puts him out front for Green Book. Also keep in mind that most sites also list Mahershala as the front runner at the Oscars at this stage, too, just like two years ago, so it’s not an absolute lock, but I’m not gonna bet against him.

 

Best Actress: Comedy/Musical

And the winner will be…Olivia Colman for The Favourite

This category presents another two-way race, between Colman and Emily Blunt for Mary Poppins Returns. While both women have won a Globe in the past for their TV work, I think The Favourite, which has five nominations to Poppins’ four, it has the advantage here. While we’re still juggling the Best Actress race at the Oscars, where most everyone says it’s Glenn Close versus Lady Gaga, I think there is a shot for Olivia Colman to split votes and win in a close race. Again, back to the idea that the Globes try to predict the Oscars, it seems right now that Colman is much more likely to win the Oscar than Blunt. All this in mind, I’m picking Colman, but won’t be surprised if Blunt pulls it out.

 

Best Actor: Comedy/Musical

And the winner will be…Christian Bale for Vice

Christian Bale’s transformative performance as Dick Cheney has drawn many comparisons to last year’s Best Actor winner at both the Globes and the Oscars, Gary Oldman, who transformed himself into Winston Churchill. While Viggo Mortensen is a beloved actor in Hollywood, and his performance in Green Book is excellent, I feel Green Book will have love in other categories, and Vice may end up going home with nothing despite its six nominations. Hmm, the same happened to The Post last year, which went 0/6. That being said, I think the controversies around Green Book’s historical accuracy, and an additional controversy around a press conference where Mortensen said the n-word, only hurts him in this category, so that leaves the door open for Vice and Bale to take it home.

 

Best Actress: Drama

And the winner will be…Lady Gaga for A Star is Born

I’m going to be so upset with myself if I get this one wrong. For a while I have been predicting Glenn Close to win the Globe this Sunday, and I’ve personally been underwhelmed by Gaga’s performance in Star is Born, yet I can’t deny that she has the upper-hand at the Globes because of her star power, and the overall love for the film. A win here may thrust Gaga ahead in the Oscar race, and before we officially declare her the predicted winner at the Oscars, we’ll have to see how the Critics Choice and Screen Actors Guild vote. Wins there for either Olivia Colman or Glenn Close could shift the momentum back in their favor. Sure, this means I’m not spreading the wealth with Gaga taking home two Globes, but I just feel like that’s where the voting is going toward.

 

Best Actor: Drama

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wuj_rFrBtvU

And the winner will be…Bradley Cooper for A Star is Born

Again I’m going against that spread the wealth idea with Star is Born taking this award and two others so far, but I feel like Bradley’s two previous losses will be made up for this year with a win here. Frankly, though, he’s gonna have to fight hard for it. Word on the street is Rami Malek has been campaigning hard, especially with HFPA voters, and it would be an opportunity to award Bohemian Rhapsody. However, since that film only has two nominations, and yes, they are in Actor and Picture: Drama, two of the top categories, I am still feeling a love in the air with Cooper’s directorial debut film. It might not win every last category its nominated for, like La La Land did, but it’ll still be the biggest winner on Sunday night.

 

Best Director

And the winner will be…Spike Lee for BlacKkKlansman

Focus Features and BlacKkKlansman have four nominations, and like Mary Poppins Returns, I think it’ll have at least one win. The big favorite in this category is Alfonso Cuaron for Roma, and sure, his direction of Roma is arguably one of the best jobs done by any director this decade. Still, I think Netflix will get some love in the Foreign Language category and possibly plenty from the TV side of the show. That leaves room for Spike and Focus to win something. Also, I’m hearing through the grapevine that this film went over very well with the voters, and there is love for him in this category, too. One more thing, and I’ve mentioned it a couple of times this season. There is an historic opportunity here for the Golden Globes, Oscars, and Directors Guild Awards to honor an African American director with the top prize, and while I feel this is something that has been passed around a bit, it hasn’t been a hot button issue yet this year. That bomb may go off any time from now until the ending period for Oscar voting, but the lid will really be blown off that discussion if he wins Sunday. Because if the presumed front runner, Cuaron, can lose there, where else could he lose?

 

Best Motion Picture: Comedy/Musical

And the winner will be…Green Book

I just mentioned a few paragraphs ago that Green Book has had a few controversies hit it in the past few weeks, but I’m feeling it will win for the Globes’ top prize for its respected category. I think both The Favourite and Vice will split votes for the more snobby crowds, whereas the crowd-pleasing Green Book, again from word of mouth, has gone over well with the voting body of the HFPA. Looking ahead to Best Picture at the Oscars, I think Green Book, The Favourite, and A Star is Born are all in the fight for the win, so whoever wins between Green Book and Favourite, may get the upper hand among the funnier competitors.

 

Best Motion Picture: Drama

And the winner will be…A Star is Born

My new Best Picture predicted winner I also see winning the Globe’s top honor. If everything I’ve predicted so far somehow comes to pass, it’ll take home four Globes, which matches last year’s Drama winner Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri. While BlacKkKlansman is the only film I see having the capacity to take down Star is Born, I’m thinking my somewhat risky pick for Best Director opts them out from handing it Best Film: Drama, too.

So overall, I’m thinking there’s some spreading the love, some films that could win multiple awards, and a pretty good variety of films that will be awarded. Now, how right am I? We’ll have to wait until Sunday to find out, but I feel even if I’m not 100%, there’s a few races that could be shaken up, tossed out, ended, or totally reborn.