This weekend, we’ll see three new wide releases – Warner Bros.’ WWII epic Dunkirk, Universal’s female-centric comedy Girls Trip, and STX’s pricey sci-fi film Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets. Predictions are below.
Dunkirk (Warner Bros.)
Christopher Nolan’s follow-up to 2014’s Interstellar follows the real-life story of the evacuation of Dunkirk during World War II. The film has received lavish praise, to say the least, with a 96% rating on Rotten Tomatoes (avg. critic score being 9/10 from 77 reviews) as of this writing, and a 9.6/10 score on IMDb from over 5,400 ratings. Couple “best movie of the year” reception with Nolan’s pedigree and you have a hit waiting to happen.
Marketing for Dunkirk has conveyed the intensity and emotion necessary to sell a war film, and the emphasis on IMAX demands the film to be seen in cinemas. The only drawback for Dunkirk is its genre – the last notable WWII film was 2014’s Unbroken ($115.6m domestically/$163.4m globally), which too told a fact-based story. Dunkirk will assuredly make more than Unbroken, given its larger scale, acclaim, and Nolan’s presence. The casting for Dunkirk also appeals to many demographics – there are plenty of pedigree actors (Kenneth Branagh, Cillian Murphy, Mark Rylance), known names (Tom Hardy), and the addition of Harry Styles should help draw younger individuals who otherwise would have no interest in a war film. Dunkirk also has the benefit of being a big-budget original in a summer plagued by franchise fatigue.
It is possible that Dunkirk could challenge Steven Spielberg’s Saving Private Ryan ($216.5m domestically/$481.8m globally, not adjusted for inflation) for the WWII box office crown if it holds throughout the summer.
Prediction: $55 million, #1 rank
Girls Trip (Universal)
This comedy from Malcolm D. Lee has quite a few benefits going for it, and is primed to surprise. Girls Trip appeals to women and African-Americans, two underserved demographics at the box office. It acts as counterprogramming against the summer’s big-budget fare. Lastly, and most importantly, its reception is positive – the film sports a 91% rating on Rotten Tomatoes (avg. critic score being 7.4/10 from 23 reviews) as of this writing.
Malcolm D. Lee’s last film for Universal was 2013’s The Best Man Holiday, which opened with $30.1 million on its way to a $70.5m domestic cume. Girls Trip has the edge of being female-centric in a male-dominated marketplace (the fact Jada Pinkett-Smith and Queen Latifah are known names helps as well), and it’s opening in more theatres than Best Man Holiday did (2,583 vs. 2,024). If Girls Trip earns the same per-theatre average as Best Man Holiday, it would open with $38.4 million. Given the competition this frame, its odds of opening that high are dim, but it should still prove a success for Universal.
Prediction: $30 million, #2 rank
Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets (STX)
Luc Besson’s sci-fi passion project hits theatres this weekend, and there is a lot on the line. The film cost a whopping $180m to produce, though most of that has supposedly been recouped via international rights sales. There is more at stake than just making back a budget, however; this is the first true test for STX Entertainment as a notable distributor (its highest-grossing film thus far is last year’s Bad Moms, which earned $113.25m stateside/$183.9m globally). The performance of Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets will also further or hinder the notion of original sci-fi epics, after movies like Warner Bros.’ Jupiter Ascending and Disney’s John Carter failed.
Reception for Valerian is positive-to-mixed – it currently has a 72% rating on Rotten Tomatoes (avg. critic score being 6.2/10 from 46 reviews) as of this writing, and a 7.2/10 score on IMDb from 260 ratings (though that isn’t a sufficient sample size to make a judgment call). Valerian’s hopes for success were predicated on it being praised and being the only big fish in the sea, and it has neither of those elements. Marketing that highlights flashy visual spectacle doesn’t cut it when there’s a lack of star power and a “hook,” things that an original film needs to survive (e.g., Alfonso Cuaron’s Gravity had Sandra Bullock, George Clooney, and a compelling premise). There is an audience for large-scale, flashy sci-fi, but it won’t be enough to save Valerian (in North America, at least).
Prediction: $19 million, #5 rank
HOLDOVER PREDICTIONS
War for the Planet of the Apes – #3 rank, $26.4 million (-53%), $102.9m cume
Spider-Man: Homecoming – #4 rank, $22.1 million (-50%), $249.4m cume
Despicable Me 3 – #6 rank, $11.6 million (-40%), $210.8m cume
Baby Driver – #7 rank, $5.4 million (-38%), $83.8m cume
The Big Sick – #8 rank, $4.9 million (-35%), $24.4m cume
Wonder Woman – #9 rank, $4.3 million (-37%), $388.8m cume
Wish Upon – #10 rank, $2.5 million (-54%), $10.6m cume
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