Oscars 2020: Which October 2019 Movies Have A Chance?

When it comes to predicting which films are going to be frontrunners for Best Picture, October is usually your best bet for a release date. One of the long-time frontrunners last year was A Star is Born, and that was released the first weekend of October. You can go back to Best Picture winners like Argo, 12 Years a Slave, Birdman, and Moonlight, all of which have come out in October. While it’s not a guarantee that your winner is among the films listed here, it goes without saying a couple of them at least will probably be in the discussion.

 

Joker | October 4th

Okay, let’s get it out of our systems and tell the joke everyone else is going to use this year: Joker is the wildcard in this year’s Oscar race. It’s coming from Todd Phillips, whose films usually don’t end up being Oscar contenders (though he was a producer on last year’s A Star is Born). With the exception of Black Panther last year, comic-book based films usually fall short in big categories, and have to feed on the technical ones. So that’s two strikes against Joker going into the season, but look at everything else in the movie.

Joaquin Phoenix is one of the most respected actors working today, and he looks to be turning in a powerhouse performance. Two-time winner Robert De Niro co-stars, but I’d bet on any nomination for him this year coming from The Irishman. The technical categories will also be in play since the film’s set in the 1980s, and I dare say Best Picture is possible. I have it in for now, but we’re seeing mixed signals from the early festivals and reviews.

Joker did win the Golden Lion at Venice, which is not the best bellwether for Best Picture (only two of the 65 films to win have taken the top prize) but then came up short at Toronto for the Audience Award. That further cements the two outcomes I see for Joker: it’s either an eight or nine nominee film or a one nominee film, like Nocturnal Animals three years ago. Either way, Joaquin is a good bet right now to at least be nominated.

 

Lucy in the Sky | October 4th

Next up is an imaginative looking film, Lucy in the Sky. It does look like a good character study for Natalie Portman, whose recent work has earned her nominated for Jackie and on the radar for Vox Lux. It’s an outer space movie, so Visual Effects is on the table.

Outside of that, though, I’m not sure what else will be in play. Jon Hamm looks good in the film, but he’s also in The Report, which looks like a better bet overall for Oscar love. While the title reminds us all of the Beatles song, I don’t see much more coming from this that will be very memorable, and the very poor reception at Toronto might just sink any hopes for this being a major player.

 

Pain and Glory | October 4th

The final film for the first weekend of October is Pedro Almodovar’s Pain and Glory, and this could be one of the biggest Oscar players of the whole month, though it doesn’t look it. It was released in Spain this March, screened at Cannes, and will screen at TIFF, too. The reviews are really great with 95% on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s a solid start, and the story seems to be self-reflexive, about a director whose career is winding down, and it has been described as Birdman, but about a director instead of an actor.

So that triggers ideas like Best Picture, Best Actor for Antonio Banderas (who has never been nominated, like Michael Keaton) and Best Director for Almodovar. We’ve seen an uptick recently of foreign directors being nominated, be it Alfonso Cuaron and Pawel Pawlikowski last year or Michael Haneke for Amour, so I’d say that would be a good prediction. Original Screenplay may go along for the ride, too. As you may have guessed, the film is all in Spanish, so as long as Spain doesn’t have a better film, it will be their candidate for Best Foreign Language Film, which may end up being a very competitive category this year.

 

Dolemite is My Name | October 4th

Since my last post about September films with Oscar chances went up, Netflix has unloaded all of their Oscar-hopefuls, and one of them is Eddie Murphy’s latest, Dolemite is My Name. While I got a kick out of the trailer, I don’t really see it as a giant Oscar hopeful. If Murphy can land a Golden Globe nomination for Best Actor: Comedy/Musical, then he’s headed in the right direction. If the film lands a nomination at the Globes, that’d help.

Otherwise, the costumes and production design may also feel some love. The very hot reviews out of TIFF really help, so while Netflix has a lot of stokes in the fire this year, Dolemite might be one to pay attention to. Dolemite will screen in limited theaters on the 4th before launching on Netflix on the 18th.

 

The Laundromat | September 27th

To make sure I have my bases covered, I’ll talk about Steven Soderbergh’s The Laundromat now. With the first trailer fresh in my mind, all I can say is this is not quite the Soderbergh movie I was expecting. It’s definitely less Traffic and more Logan Lucky. I think this will be a smash with the Hollywood Foreign Press, and will likely see Meryl Streep and Gary Oldman (weird accent and all) land nominations.

After that, I actually would not be surprised if the Oscars ignore it. The Laundromat has received mixed reviews at both TIFF and Venice, and voters sometimes shy away from love-it or hate-it movies, so I wouldn’t put all my eggs in this basket. The Laundromat will be in limited release on September 27th, then on Netflix on October 18th.

 

Gemini Man | October 11th

Two Will Smiths for the price of one? Everyone is already talking about how great the digital de-aging looks on Will Smith, so the obvious play for Gemini Man is Visual Effects. Since it’s a sci-fi film, the design categories are on the table, and we do have Ang Lee in the director’s chair, after all, so we can’t really doubt him (except for Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk).

 

The Addams Family | October 11th

While I have always liked the idea of exploring the world of Charles Addams’ classic characters. I did judge The Peanuts Movie pretty hardcore years ago for breaking the style we were used to, but that worked out pretty well. However, when it comes to this new version, all I can say is “no thank you”.

From dreadfully obvious humor, gags relying on recent films (like It) that will be outdated two months after release, and an assortment of kiddie humor, The Addams Family looks awful. If it’s lucky, we’ll have a poor lineup for Best Animated Feature if a few films down the line flop hard. Otherwise, this one may be dead in the water.

 

The King | October 11th

Another Netflix addition is David Michod’s take on Shakespeare’s Henry plays. While it has such a generic title, the trailer looks promising, and has a talented cast, including Timothee Chalamet, Joel Edgerton, and Robert Pattison just to name a few. I wouldn’t be shocked if this film leaps into some top categories, like Best Actor for Chalamet or Best Adapted Screenplay, for which Edgerton would be nominated since he’s a co-writer. Otherwise, The King will have to be a pretty big flop to avoid nominations in Costume Design, Production Design, and Makeup and Hairstyling.

The King premiered to good, but not great reviews at Venice (76% on Rotten Tomatoes), which doesn’t push me over the edge for putting this in for a lot of top categories. The King will rule in limited release starting on October 11th, but Netflix streamers will have to wait until November 1st.

 

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil | October 18th

For the first release of October 18th, we have the sequel to the Oscar-nominated Maleficent. Yes, that’s right, the original film was nominated for its Costume Design. Because this sequel looks like pretty much the same story, and it has a friendlier release date, Maleficent 2 may indeed see a nomination for Costumes, and I also wouldn’t rule out the Visual Effects, Sound, and Production Design categories. Makeup and Hairstyling may also be possible.

 

Jojo Rabbit | October 18th

Probably my most anticipated film of the month is Jojo Rabbit, a Taika Waititi anti-hate satire in which he co-stars as an imaginary Hitler. Come on, who’s not on board for that? Well, turns out a few critics, but the Audience Award winner of TIFF will have a few plays at the Oscars this year, including Best Picture, Director, Supporting Actor for Waititi, Supporting Actress for Scarlett Johansson, and Adapted Screenplay.

Remember, like Joker, Jojo Rabbit is not now a surefire winner for Best Picture (in the last twenty years, only five films have gone on to win Best Picture). Outside of the top categories, I’d say there’s a good possibility a couple of tech categories will also be in play. I have a feeling that a number of Oscar voters are going to avoid this film like the plague because of its handling of the subject matter (it’s not clear now if this will be gunning for the Comedy/Musical categories at the Golden Globes or stick with Drama), but I think enough people will love it enough to give it a few nominations down the road.

 

The Lighthouse | October 18th

Finally, we have The Lighthouse. While Robert Eggers’ first film, The Witch, didn’t earn any big accolades, The Lighthouse may be a turn for the better. A24 really hyped it up after the enthusiastic reception at Cannes, where the cast, director, and cinematography all earned rave reviews and a 94% from Rotten Tomatoes.

TIFF also hosted some screenings of the film, and the big takeaway seems to be Willem Dafoe, who will compete (so far as we know) in Supporting Actor. While he’s been nominated the last two years in a row for The Florida Project and At Eternity’s Gate, we have to remember three nominations in a row is a hard feat, though Bradley Cooper pulled it off with Silver Linings Playbook, American Hustle, and American Sniper. Robert Pattison could get some love in the lead category, but Jarin Blaschke’s black-and-white cinematography will definitely have a leg-up, because as we saw last year, the cinematographers branch loves black-and-white (both Roma and Cold War got in). Otherwise, I’m not sure how much love this desolate-set horror film will receive.

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