2019 Oscars at a Glance: October Preview – First Man, A Star Is Born & More

There used to be a rule that your Best Picture winner had to be released before Thanksgiving. That was broken last year with The Shape of Water opening in theaters in December, but recently we’ve seen films like Moonlight, Birdman, 12 Years a Slave, and Argo all released in October. So with four of the last six Best Picture winners being released in October, we might want to pay particular attention to this month as statistically there’s a higher chance of your ultimate winner being among these films.

 

A Star is Born | October 5th

We have a pretty packed weekend to start out October this year, and first up will be one of the more likely box office hits of the month that could also garner a lot of critical praise, the latest rendition of A Star is Born. Of course it’s the same story we’ve seen three times before, but updated for today’s audiences with Bradley Cooper starring, co-writing, co-producing, and directing the film. The film could realistically end up as a Best Picture nominee, it could see Cooper break into the directing and writing categories, though from early looks that Best Adapted Screenplay category will be pretty stuffed this year. Maybe Best Actress is possible, too, with Lady Gaga. Sam Elliott looks to have a friendly role that could get him a Supporting Actor nomination as Cooper’s manager. And of course if there’s a plethora of original songs, there could be one or multiple nominations there. So a lot of eyes will be on this one when it opens October 5th, but it will also screen out of competition at the Venice Film Festival and will also screen at the Toronto International Film Festival.

 

Venom | October 5th

Also opening on October 5th is Venom, and really this one is only mentioned for a possible nomination for Best Visual Effects as well as maybe the two sound categories, so I’m covering my ass in case that film does get a lot of traction in the coming weeks before release and the months following.

 

The Happy Prince | October 5th

The final film for the first weekend of October is The Happy Prince, a biographical film about Oscar Wilde’s private life and how he was ridiculed for his homosexuality. Rupert Everett stars as Wilde, and he also makes his directorial debut with Happy Prince, which he also wrote. Colin Firth, Emily Watson, and Tom Wilkinson co-star. The film premiered at the Sundance Film Festival earlier this year and has a 75% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, and since it’s a period-piece we should be on the lookout for nominations in the costumes and production design categories. But I’d also look to Everett possibly scoring his first Oscar nomination as well, more likely for acting than directing or writing, but who knows? He could end up with nominations in all three.

 

First Man | October 12th

October 12 will see the release of what could turn into the early frontrunner for Best Picture this year, First Man. The biopic on Neil Armstrong and the mission to the moon that made him famous comes from Damien Chazelle, who just won Best Director a couple of years ago for La La Land and has established a great track record at the Oscars with that film and Whiplash, and it looks like First Man will continue that. Ryan Gosling stars as Armstrong, with Claire Foy, Jason Clarke, Corey Stoll, Shea Wingham, Brian D’Arcy James, Lukas Haas, Ciaran Hinds, and Kyle Chandler also in the project. Like A Star is Born, there’s a lot of potential categories for First Man, and there’s a chance it lands (ha, moon landing joke) the most nominations of any film this year. We’re talking Best Picture, Director, Actor for Gosling, Supporting Actress for Foy, Adapted Screenplay, by Oscar-winner Josh Singer of Spotlight fame and who recently co-wrote The Post, and the technical crew from La La Land, most of whom won Oscars for their work on that film, are all back as well. It will open the Venice Film Festival on August 29th and will also screen at TIFF.

 

Beautiful Boy | October 12th

Opening opposite First Man is Beautiful Boy, which I see as another big player this year, and in my personal view, has had the best trailer of any of these potential Oscar nominated films yet. Well, maybe If Beale Street Could Talk had a great trailer, too, but no matter. Based on two autobiographies, one of a father helping his meth-addicted son, and the other of a meth-addicted son getting over his addiction, the Felix van Groeningen directed film stars Steve Carell, Timothee Chalamet, Maura Tierney, Timothy Hutton, Stefanie Scott and Amy Ryan star. Early on I can say this film could clean up the acting categories with Carell as a Lead Actor nominee, Chalamet a likely Supporting Actor nominee, but at this stage he could have just as big or an even bigger role than Carell, and they may flip-flop for which category they campaign in. Also either Ryan or Tierney could be threats in Supporting Actress. Also the script could be a nominee and Groeningen could be recognized for his directing job. The film will have its premiere at TIFF.

 

The Hate U Give | October 19th

We have a more racially charged film opening on October 19th, The Hate U Give. The story of a young black girl whose best friend is shot and killed by a police officer, this film, If Beale Street Could Talk, Green Book and BlacKkKlansman all will be fighting for the racially charged films cause, and realistically if all four films are good enough they could all get nominations in various categories. For this one, though, I’m really looking at Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay, and possibly some love for Lead Actress for Amandla Stenberg as the big spots it could land. Otherwise I’m sure it will strike a chord at the box office as well. The Hate U Give will screen at TIFF in September.

 

Can You Ever Forgive Me? | October 19th

Next up on the crowded weekend of the 19th is Can You Ever Forgive Me?, which stars Melissa McCarthy as Lee Israel, a deceptive writer who claimed to be in the know with famous actors, writers, and various celebrities. McCarthy could realistically receive her second acting nomination for this one, and Richard E. Grant could be a possible surprise Supporting Actor nominee just based on the trailer. We’ll see just how widespread the possibilities are when it premieres at TIFF before opening in October.

 

Mid90s | October 19th

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Igfhy3Q5CeI

What about Jonah Hill’s directorial debut with Mid90s? Well, the trailer definitely looked like a personal piece of work, and he has scored a couple of acting nominations in the past, but since it’s about the skating world in mid-90s LA, this could be a hard sell for the Academy. Still, you do have Lucas Hedges and Katherine Waterston in the cast, and A24, who has had a great track record in recent years at the Oscars, is behind the distribution, so that helps. It will be among the midnight screenings this year at TIFF.

 

What They Had | October 19th

We also have What They Had opening the same weekend. This film, a family story about a mother with Alzheimer’s and how the family reacts to it, stars Hilary Swank, Michael Shannon, Robert Forster, Taissa Farmiga, Josh Lucas, and Blythe Danner. Again, I’m mainly interested in the cast for this one. We could see Swank score her first Best Actress nomination in over a decade. Michael Shannon’s been on a hot streak with films he’s in being nominated (and sometimes winning) or his performances being rewarded in recent years. Forster’s a previous nominee as well and looks like he turns in a nice performance, and Danner looks to have a sympathetic yet comedic turn as the Alzheimer’s sufferer. If I had to bet money on which of these is most likely to be nominated, I’d say Danner, but there could be room for more. What They Had premiered at Sundance and has all positive reviews on Rotten Tomatoes, where the script was also praised, so there’s another possible nomination.

 

Wildlife | October 19th

The final film on my radar for October, and also opening on the 19th, is Wildlife, the directorial debut of Paul Dano, who also co-wrote the script. This one sees Jake Gyllenhaal and Carey Mulligan as a couple at odds with each other as they move to Montana. The trailer showcases some nice-looking performances from both Gyllenhaal and Mulligan, both of whom have been massively overlooked for their recent works, and Dano himself missed out on a nomination for his work in Love & Mercy, so there’s a lot of undue credit that this film could cash in on. The film has already screened at both the Sundance and Cannes Film Festivals, and holds a 100% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, and on top of that it will also have a slot at TIFF, so there’s a lot of possible nominations here to keep an eye on.