2019 Oscars at a Glance: 3rd Golden Globe Nomination Predictions
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Believe it or not, the Golden Globe nominations are less than a month away. So to mark that, it’s time to give some updates on the film categories and where they’re headed. Will they preview the Oscars, as they’ve done in recent years, or will they go their own way and reward films that aren’t on the Oscar radar yet? Also, one update from my last article on the Globes is the inclusion this time of the music categories and Animated Feature.
Best Original Song
The tradition here is that the Globes tend to follow the lead of where the Oscar predictions are going, so we’ll stick with similar results here as what I have predicted at the Oscars. First off, Lady Gaga will dominate this category with at least two nominations for A Star is Born, probably for “Shallow” and “I’ll Never Love Again”. I also see Sia’s song from Vox Lux getting in with her yet untitled piece. There’s another tradition here where one or two of the animated feature nominees, if they have a song, landing a second nomination in this category. And thus far, when looking over those nominees, I see “Finally Free” making the cut. For the last nominee, I’ll go with one of the songs from Mary Poppins Returns. Again, we don’t know yet which one or two the studio is going to push for, but I’m betting on at least one of them landing a nod.
Best Original Score
My feelings on this category again line up with my Oscar odds. First Man will likely take the category, with the other four nominees being If Beale Street Could Talk, Widows, Mary Poppins Returns, and Crazy Rich Asians. The only change I see between these nomination and the Oscars is the inclusion of Crazy Rich Asians in for Black Panther. I just am not feeling Ludwig Goransson will make it with the Globes voters. I may be wrong, but just for now I’m thinking Crazy Rich Asians will go over better.
Best Animated Feature
Like the Oscars, I see the Hollywood Foreign Press Association going with Disney/Pixar’s Incredibles 2. You may recall that Wes Anderson’s Grand Budapest Hotel took down eventual Best Picture winner Birdman for Best Motion Picture: Comedy/Musical four years ago, but I don’t see Anderson’s latest film, Isle of Dogs, scoring a similar outcome. I have it in second position. For the final three, I have Ralph Breaks the Internet, Smallfoot, and Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse.
I have the same five films as last time in for Screenplay, and in the same order from most likely to least likely to be nominated: The Favourite, If Beale Street Could Talk, Green Book, Vice, and BlacKkKlansman.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Changes: Margot Robbie out, Rachel Weisz in
With Mary Queen of Scots still to debut, I’m going to hold off on her being nominated at this stage. There is a route where The Favourite becomes the film with the most nominations the morning of the Globes, and if that is the case, then both Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz get in for the supporting category. For my rankings here, I’m going with Regina King out front for If Beale Street Could Talk, Claire Foy for First Man, Amy Adams for Vice, Emma Stone for The Favourite, and Rachel Weisz for The Favourite.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Changes: Stephan James out, Adam Driver in
We have learned since my last article that Stephan James will be going lead for If Beale Street Could Talk. Now, unless the HFPA goes crazy and loves that film, I don’t see a crowded category like Lead Actor: Drama leaving a space for him. He had a much better shot here in supporting. While I have Daniel Kaluuya reaping the fifth spot at the Oscars, I see a different scenario here at Globes: Adam Driver for BlacKkKlansman. First off, Driver was recently nominated at the Gothams for his work in the film, and in retrospect, Spike Lee’s first big awards contender, Do the Right Thing, received four nominations at the Globes that year: Best Screenplay, Supporting Actor for Danny Aiello, Director, and Motion Picture: Drama. Do the Right Thing only received two nods by the Academy, screenplay and Aiello for Supporting Actor. So it stands to reason that Driver, who I don’t have getting an Oscar nomination, makes it in at the Globes, where Spike Lee goes over a little better.
Also I’ve changed my winner in this category to Mahershala Ali for Green Book. He was overlooked by HFPA for Moonlight, and a non Oscar nominee, Aaron Taylor-Johnson, won that year for Nocturnal Animals. I see them making amends for that. Whether Ali can run the table again and receive a second Oscar for Green Book, that has yet to be seen. I’m also putting Timothee Chalamet in Beautiful Boy in front of my Oscar winner, Sam Rockwell for Vice. Similarly, there’s always been a crowd of people saying Timothee should have won last year for Call Me by your Name, and since Rockwell just won last year for Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri, I don’t see the Globes going to him again. Then again, Jennifer Lawrence and Amy Adams both won Globes back-to-back years, so I wouldn’t fall over in shock if it did happen. Richard E. Grant is in my fourth position for Can You Ever Forgive Me, and Driver is in fifth.
Best Actress: Comedy/Musical
Changes: Elsie Fisher out, Kathryn Hahn in
Kathryn Hahn wowed the awards season watchers with her nomination at Gotham for the Netflix film Private Life. And when looking at the Globes, where this is one of the weaker categories competition-wise, Hahn takes over for relative newcomer Elsie Fisher. I still have Olivia Colman winning here for The Favourite, and the rest of the rankings go like this: Emily Blunt for Mary Poppins Returns, Constance Wu for Crazy Rich Asians, Kathryn Hahn for Private Life, and Charlize Theron for Tully.
Best Actor: Comedy/Musical
I only switched the second and third place nominees here. I still see Christian Bale taking home his second Globe for Vice, then I have Viggo Mortensen in a close second for Green Book. Looking ahead to the Oscars, I get the feeling, and others of note do as well, that whoever wins this category between these two will showdown with Bradley Cooper for the Oscar win. We’ll get to Bradley in a minute. Anyways, third place for me is Robert Redford in The Old Man and the Gun, with fourth and fifth place being Lin-Manuel Miranda for Mary Poppins Returns and John C. Reilly for The Sisters Brothers.
Best Actress: Drama
Changes: Kiki Layne out, Glenn Close in
I have recently switched Glenn to win at the Oscars as well, but she does have a formidable challenge here. Close is my winner here for The Wife, following in the footsteps of Julianne Moore a few years ago in Still Alice, where she steamrolled the stiff competition everywhere. Lady Gaga is in second position here for A Star is Born, and if she hadn’t have won for her spot on American Horror Story a couple years back, and also if she didn’t have an opt out for her work with the songs, she could have taken over, but for now I don’t see it in the cards. Third place is Saoirse Ronan for Mary Queen of Scots, fourth is Melissa McCarthy for Can You Ever Forgive Me, and fifth is Viola Davis for Widows.
Best Actor: Drama
I mentioned Cooper earlier for A Star is Born having to take on either Viggo Mortensen or Christian Bale for the Oscar, and I feel that one of them wins the Comedy Globe, Cooper wins the Drama one. In second place is Ryan Gosling for First Man, then Rami Malek for Bohemian Rhapsody, Hugh Jackman for The Front Runner, and Willem Dafoe for At Eternity’s Gate fighting for that fifth slot.
Changes: Damien Chazelle out, Yorgos Lanthimos in
It’s beginning to feel like First Man will miss out in this category, and honestly I feel the Globes will have a more nominated film, The Favourite, take up one of the slots. For the rankings, I have Spike Lee still winning here for BlacKkKlansman, then Barry Jenkins for If Beale Street Could Talk, Alfonso Cuaron for Roma, Bradley Cooper for A Star is Born, and Yorgos in fifth.
Best Motion Picture: Comedy/Musical
It didn’t make much sense to have a film like The Favourite, which, pun intended, will probably be a favorite of the Academy’s as well, win this category yet not land a director nomination. That hasn’t happened at the Globes since, well, last year with Greta Gerwig missing out for the director nom but her film, Lady Bird, winning the category for film. So maybe it will happen, but Yorgos, at this point, seems a stronger contender there than Greta, who ended up with a nomination at the Oscars. For second place, in strong competition, is Green Book. Seriously, these two are neck-and-neck, and while I feel the latter has a better chance at winning Best Picture at the Oscars, the former has a weird vibe to it that the HFPA might dig more. The last three nominees I have here are Vice, Crazy Rich Asians, and Mary Poppins Returns.
Best Motion Picture: Drama
I’m pretty happy with my five picks here, but I’m shifting the order of most likely to be nominated to least likely a bit. If Beale Street Could Talk is still out front for me, but A Star is Born sure is in a tight battle with it. I might switch those around soon. Third place is BlacKkKlansman, then Widows and First Man fill out the category.
December 6th is the magical day that nominations are announced, but between now and then a lot can change.