Weekend Box Office Predictions: The Nun Will Bring Spirit to September

The Nun movie
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Labour Day kind of sucked, movie-wise (maybe in other ways for some, but I don’t make claims), though Warner’s is looking to give it something of a jolt after they pretty well carried August. Some other movies come out, too, but we’ll get to those.

 

God Bless the Broken Road (Freestyle)

As of this writing, the trailer linked above for God Bless the Broken Road – named after a Rascal Flatts song, of all things – stands at less than 24,000 views. I think the highest had less than 25,000. Double whammy that with director Harold Cronk, who brought us the first two God’s Not Dead movies, and we have nothing of a miracle on our hands.

Christian-themed cinema was, at one point, seeming like a ripe avenue for easy cash. Just a few years ago, actually, with features like the aforementioned God’s Not Dead banking $60.76m and that same year’s Heaven is for Real grossing $91.44m. This year’s brought us Roadside’s I Can Only Imagine, similarly named after a song, and that made $83.48m. Distributor Freestyle’s last movie to make any semblance of box office was 2016’s Meet the Blacks (a historically-bad title) with $9.1m. They’re not prolific, is the point here.

Overall, the movie’s 1,233 venue count and the lack of any incentive to really catch it call to mind last September’s Same Kind of Different as Me ($6.42m), although that movie at least had a familiar face or two (if you remember Renee Zellweger).

Prediction: $2 million, #10 rank

 

The Nun (Warner Bros.)

Maybe when it was in development one could let their mind wander to expect The Nun, the latest entry in the surprisingly successful Conjuring cinematic universe (and more interestingly, the only non-Marvel cinematic universe that’s proven itself well thus far), to be a middling performer. But then you see 2014’s spectacularly terrible Annabelle made $257.05m globally off a character with fleeting screentime in the first Conjuring. And so the potential for this franchise was revealed and it’s only grown.

There aren’t any aggregate scores for The Nun just yet, but it’s looking fairly not great. Underwhelming reviews shouldn’t bury this, though, especially when Fandango announced The Nun’s passed all Conjuring movies combined in presales.

The Conjuring franchise’s opening weekend average lands at $38.6m with the highest debut belonging to the first film ($41.86m). It wouldn’t be exactly surprising to see The Nun surpass that, but I’ll play it a little safe here. Regardless, this $22m production will prove another success for Warner’s and company.

Prediction: $40 million, #1 rank

 

Peppermint (STX)

I want to feel bad for STX having a string of flops, but they don’t make it easy. Peppermint, starring Jennifer Garner as a rough and tough mom seeking vengeance for her family by taking on a cartel, looks very bad. And it probably will be very bad, a suggestion only helped by its lack of reviews. That said, it’s the sort of very bad that’s kind of interesting, y’know?

If Focus’ Charlize Theron actioner Atomic Blonde made $18.29m in its debut, it’s hard to imagine Jennifer Garner pulling in stronger figures. STX’s previous action movie, Mark Wahlberg’s Mile 22, made $13.71m in its debut a couple weeks back, marking a likely ceiling for Peppermint.

Industry insiders, as per Deadline, have Peppermint at $10m-$13m for the weekend. Let’s go with the lower end so we can be pleasantly surprised if it comes in higher.

Prediction: $10 million, #3 rank

 

HOLDOVERS

Crazy Rich Asians2. Crazy Rich Asians (Warner Bros.) – $15.4 million (-30%), $138.5m cume
4. The Meg (Warner Bros.) – $5.8 million (-45%), $131.7m cume
5. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (Paramount) – $4.2 million (-40%), $212.6m cume
6. Searching (Sony) – $4.2 million (-40%), $14.3m cume
7. Operation Finale (MGM) – $3 million (-50%), $14.2m cume
8. Christopher Robin (Disney) – $2.9 million (-45%), $91.6m cume
9. BlacKkKlansman (Focus) – $2.5 million (-40%), $43.4m cume