Oscars 2020: Updated Golden Globe Predictions (November 2019)

A couple of weeks ago, all the studios with major Oscar contenders this year submitted their films to the Hollywood Foreign Press Association with classifications of which categories they wanted them to compete in. As I expected from the top of the season, not all of the films we thought would be in the Comedy races are, and a few Dramas are now on the opposite side. I feel it’s now appropriate to re-size the races in the top categories that are affected by these moves. We’ll only look at the categories of Lead Actor and Actress and Film for both Comedy/Musical and Drama and who I am predicting to be nominated.

Best Actress: Comedy/Musical

Predictions:
Awkwafina – The Farewell
Cate Blanchett – Where’d You Go, Bernadette?
Kaitlyn Dever – Booksmart
Emma Thompson – Late Night
Constance Wu – Hustlers

Bombshell was one of the films moved out of the Comedy category and now put into the Drama races, which means that Charlize Theron has vacated my top spot. With her gone, that bumps Awkwafina into the top slot for her work in The Farewell. I am still including Kaitlyn Dever (Booksmart), Cate Blanchett (Where’d You Go, Bernadette?), and Emma Thompson (Late Night).

For the fifth slot, I have a previous Drama contender, Constance Wu, who is campaigning lead for Hustlers. Again, no official word yet from STX if she will compete with her co-star Jennifer Lopez, but with the studio asserting Wu as a lead, that tends to mean that Lopez will run in supporting.

Best Actor: Comedy/Musical

Predictions:
Daniel Craig – Knives Out
Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Taron Egerton – Rocketman
Eddie Murphy – Dolemite is My Name
Adam Sandler – Uncut Gems

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood was another film that switched sides, moving from Drama to Comedy. This is actually pretty rare for a Tarantino film, since all but Jackie Brown were considered in the Drama races.

My picks for this category remain largely the same: Eddie Murphy out front for Dolemite is My Name, Taron Egerton in a close second, then I am adding Leonardo DiCaprio for Hollywood, with Daniel Craig for Knives Out and Adam Sandler for Uncut Gems filling out the bunch. Previous contender Jonathan Pryce will now be over in the Drama race for The Two Popes.

Best Actress: Drama

Predictions:
Scarlett Johannson – Marriage Story
Helen Mirren – The Good Liar
Saoirse Ronan – Little Women
Charlize Theron – Bombshell
Renee Zellweger – Judy

Now that we have to make room for Charlize Theron, who I believe will be nominated come hell or high water, that leads to one change. As far as the competition goes, this was probably a bad move on Lionsgate’s part. As I mentioned last time for the Globes, Theron felt untouchable in the Comedy race for Actress, but she will fall short in the Drama race against both Saoirse Ronan (Little Women) and Renee Zellweger (Judy).

So that means that my rankings now translate to Theron settling for third place, and I still have Scarlett Johannson in for Marriage Story. I bumped Cynthia Erivo (Harriet) out and am keeping Helen Mirren (The Good Liar), and that’s more for the popularity of her than for Erivo, whose performance was the best part of Harriet.

Best Actor: Drama

Predictions:
Christian Bale – Ford v Ferrari
Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory
Adam Driver – Marriage Story
Robert De Niro – The Irishman
Joaquin Phoenix – Joker

Again, just one change with Leo out. Joaquin Phoenix is my frontrunner for Joker, then Adam Driver in second for Marriage Story, Antonio Banderas in third for Pain and Glory, and Robert De Niro in fourth for The Irishman.

My new contender is Christian Bale in Ford v Ferrari, though it’s a tough choice between him and a few other contenders, like the aforementioned Jonathan Pryce, Michael B. Jordan for Just Mercy, and Mark Ruffalo for Dark Waters, to name a few. In other news, Disney announced that both Bale and his co-star Matt Damon will both be competing for Lead Actor across the board this year for Ford v Ferrari, so keep that in mind.

Best Motion Picture: Comedy/Musical

Predictions:
Booksmart
Cats
Dolemite is My Name
Jojo Rabbit
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

One other major announcement with the category changes is that The Farewell, which was originally set to compete here, will be featured in the Foreign Language Category for the top prize, making it ineligible to be nominated for this category. Similar rules were enforced last year with Roma, which was eligible for the acting categories in Drama, but couldn’t be nominated for Motion Picture: Drama.

So with Farewell and Bombshell out of the race, I have the following nominees in my shortlist: Jojo Rabbit, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (both of which will likely duke it out to win), Dolemite is My Name, Booksmart, and Cats. Hustlers will also be a likely contender here, as will Knives Out and Rocketman, so there’s a lot of possibilities for which films are named as nominees here.

Best Motion Picture: Drama

Predictions:
1917
Bombshell
Little Women
Marriage Story
The Irishman

The same rules in store for The Farewell apply to Pain and Glory and Parasite, two films that might get some love from the Globes. That means the Foreign Language category will likely be filled with more widely seen contenders this year, which is always a positive.

Anyway, I have Marriage Story, The Irishman, and 1917 in my list still. I have bumped out The Report in favor of Bombshell since the journalism movie with the most popularity will likely be nominated, and all signs are pointing to Bombshell.

And for my fifth predicted nominee, I’ll go with Little Women, though I wouldn’t be shocked if it’s bested by Ford v Ferrari or Downton Abbey. And there is also a possibility (this is true for the Comedy category, too), that a tie results in six nominees. It’s happened before, and if history has taught us anything, it’s that the Globes love to surprise us.

Also, keep in mind that these films have been submitted in these categories at the studios’ requests. It is up to the voting body of the HFPA if they accept the classifications or not, and they will make press announcements for any other last minute changes.

That means that films like Once Upon a Time in Hollywood could last-minute change back over to the Drama race, as could the more serious-minded films Uncut Gems and Jojo Rabbit. That stands true for some Drama contenders, like Bombshell and The Two Popes, so you could argue that we’ll end up right back where we started with these predictions. Again, with the Globes, nothing should shock us.