The Broadcast Film Critics Association announce their nominations this Sunday, December 8th, and they will be the first televised industry award show of the season to do so. Here are my predictions in the top categories, which differ from other awards shows since they have a solid ten selections for Best Picture, and six nominations for the screenplay, acting and directing categories. I’ll also give my thoughts on the Ensemble category as well.
Best Adapted Screenplay
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
The Two Popes
For six contenders, this feels about right to me. Joker will also be in contention, and there’s a chance that something like Richard Jewell, Toy Story 4 or Dark Waters may be nominated, too, but I don’t suspect this to be a category full of surprises.
Best Original Screenplay
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
With Uncut Gems doing very well in the early critics prizes (a couple of big wins at the National Board of Review and with the New York Film Critics Circle), I think it could land a nomination here in screenplay. This will be a very stacked field, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Dolemite is My Name, Booksmart, Ford v Ferrari, Pain and Glory, or Bombshell upset one or more of these six.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Annette Bening -The Report
Laura Dern – Marriage Story
Jennifer Lopez – Hustlers
Florence Pugh – Little Women
Margot Robbie – Bombshell
Zhao Shuzhen – The Farewell
All six of these contenders feel very much in the hunt for this race across all the awards shows, with the addition of Scarlett Johansson for Jojo Rabbit, Maggie Smith for Downton Abbey, and Da’Vine Joy Randolph for Dolemite is My Name.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Alan Alda – Marriage Story
Willem Dafoe – The Lighthouse
Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Al Pacino – The Irishman
Joe Pesci – The Irishman
This is my lineup after a tough decision to cut Jamie Foxx for Just Mercy, which is doing okay with critics but not universally loved the way these five films are. The same goes for Song Kang-Ho in Parasite, who could easily sneak onto this list. A few other names to watch out for are Sterling K. Brown in Waves and Anthony Hopkins in The Two Popes.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Awkwafina – The Farewell
Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story
Lupita Nyong’o – Us
Saoirse Ronan – Little Women
Charlize Theron – Bombshell
Renee Zellweger – Judy
Lupita had a huge bump after her surprise win at the New York Film Critics Circle Awards, and while that’s not directly connected to the BFCA, I think it can’t hurt her chances. Cynthia Erivo (Harriet), Constance Wu (Hustlers) and Alfre Woodard (Clemency) will also be vying for spots, so I wouldn’t count them out.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver – Marriage Story
Eddie Murphy – Dolemite is My Name
Robert De Niro – The Irishman
Joaquin Phoenix – Joker
These six just feel right to me, and I don’t think any of them will miss. However, I will include Jonathan Pryce for The Two Popes, Taron Egerton for Rocketman, Christian Bale for Ford v Ferrari, and Adam Sandler for Uncut Gems as some possible spoilers.
Dolemite is My Name
This is one of the few categories with five nominees, and this takes the cake for most competitive category. Marriage Story feels like the only sure bet here, with the other four standing at least a miniscule chance of falling away. Little Women, Parasite, Ford v Ferrari, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Waves, Knives Out, Bombshell, and Hustlers could all end up being nominated, so keep an eye out for this being one of the big categories for upsets and a lot of folks calling “snub”.
Noah Baumbach – Marriage Story
Bong Joon Ho – Parasite
Sam Mendes – 1917
Martin Scorsese – The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Taika Waititi – Jojo Rabbit
This will be quite a line-up, and it’s a very competitive year in this category. The only one I’m a bit shaky on is Waititi, who could miss out since his film is a little more divided with critics, and we could see Pedro Almodovar (Pain and Glory), Terrence Malick (A Hidden Life), Greta Gerwig (Little Women) or James Mangold (Ford v Ferrari) make a splash with their inclusion.
Ford v Ferrari
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Again, I think we could see a number of different films surprise us here in this category, but it will still be a good representation of how strong a year we’ve had, especially in the last few months. Joker, Pain and Glory, Dolemite is My Name, Uncut Gems, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, The Two Popes, Hustlers, and Knives Out (possibly) could all take one or multiple spots, so watch out for some upsets.
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