October is where my focus on awards season grows narrower, not just because it’s closer to the Oscar nominations, but also because we have a couple other award shows to help us narrow down the field. One of those, arguably the biggest, is the Golden Globes. What’s nice and challenging about the Globes is how they separate the comedy and musicals from the dramas, allowing more nominations and spotlights to be put on films that sometimes don’t stand a chance at the Oscars. And yes, I’m looking at you, Greatest Showman. Anyhoo, here are some early shot-in-the-dark predictions.
The Globes combine the original and adapted screenplays into one big category here, and whittle it down to five nominees. My five for now are The Favourite, If Beale Street Could Talk, Green Book, Vice, and BlacKkKlansman. There’s an assortment of options here to keep an eye out for, and they include A Star is Born, First Man, Beautiful Boy, Roma, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, and The Ballad of Buster Scruggs.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
For the most part, my predictions usually end up copying the Oscar predictions, unless it’s those lead categories, where comedy/musical and dramas are separated out. So I’m going with these five ladies: Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk, Claire Foy for First Man, Amy Adams for Vice, Emma Stone for The Favourite, and Margot Robbie for Mary Queen of Scots. Again, there is some confusion over whether Emma Stone will go lead for The Favourite, and if her co-star Olivia Colman will also be a lead or if she will duck down into supporting. The same goes for Amy Adams, whose screentime in Vice is unknown at this time, so she may be a better fit for lead actress instead of supporting. Some other threats in this category include Rachel Weisz for The Favourite, Michelle Yeoh for Crazy Rich Asians, Nicole Kidman for Boy Erased, and Sissy Spacek for The Old Man and the Gun.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Unlike my current Oscar predictions, I’m going with one change in the supporting race for the guys. My five are Sam Rockwell for Vice, Timothee Chalamet for Beautiful Boy, Mahershala Ali for Green Book, Richard E. Grant for Can You Ever Forgive Me?, and Stephan James for If Beale Street Could Talk. The other possible nominees here include Sam Elliott for A Star is Born, Daniel Kaluuya for Widows, Russell Crowe for Boy Erased, and Steve Carell for Vice. This category has been troublesome for me in the past few years, so remember that there’s a lot of time left in this race to determine the five nominees. I’ll probably change these five around or add or drop others in the next few weeks.
Best Actress: Comedy/Musical
Going into the lead roles, we’ll start with the jokesters and singers. For the ladies, it looks like we don’t have too many tough choices to make. My five, for now, are Lady Gaga for A Star is Born, Emily Blunt for Mary Poppins Returns, Constance Wu for Crazy Rich Asians, Olivia Colman for The Favourite, and Elsie Fisher for Eighth Grade. Before we go any further, let’s also remember at this time that the Globes determine what films end up in the drama race and which qualify as comedies and musicals, so films like The Favourite, Tully, Welcome to Marwen, The Sisters Brothers, The Old Man and the Gun, Green Book, Vice, The Front Runner, and Can You Ever Forgive Me may flip-flop categories depending on the rulings from the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. For now, it looks like Favourite, Tully, Marwen, Sisters Brothers, Old Man, and Green Book are being classified as comedies and the others are dramas. We’ll see if that sticks. Some other Comedy/Musical actresses to keep in mind are Charlize Theron for Tully, and maybe Emma Stone if she ends up in lead.
Best Actor: Comedy/Musical
For this category, there’s a few more options to choose from, so this won’t be as easy as the actresses. For me, I have Bradley Cooper for A Star is Born, Rami Malek for Bohemian Rhapsody, Robert Redford for The Old Man and the Gun, Viggo Mortensen for Green Book, and Lin-Manuel Miranda for Mary Poppins Returns. While some may question the choice of putting Old Man and Green Book as comedies, for the moment that’s what the studio wants them classified as. We saw a few years ago that putting The Martian in the comedy/musical category reaped great benefits for the film at the Oscars. For the others, we look to Ewan McGregor for Christopher Robin, Steve Carell for Welcome to Marwen, and both Joaquin Phoenix and John C. Reilly for The Sisters Brothers.
Best Actress: Drama
The drama leading ladies have a bit more competition than their comedy counterparts. There really are a few different options here. For the first predictions, I’m going with Saoirse Ronan for Mary Queen of Scots, Viola Davis for Widows, Melissa McCarthy for Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Kiki Layne for If Beale Street Could Talk, and Glenn Close for The Wife. The rest of the field includes Nicole Kidman for Destroyer, Felicity Jones for On the Basis of Sex, Yalitza Aparacio for Roma, Julia Roberts for Ben is Back, Keira Knightley for Colette, and Amandla Stenberg for The Hate U Give.
Best Actor: Drama
The leading men in the drama race are maybe a bit easier, but still, there’s a lot that can happen in this category. For now, my five are Christian Bale for Vice, Lucas Hedges for Boy Erased, Ryan Gosling for First Man, Hugh Jackman for The Front Runner, and Steve Carell for Beautiful Boy. Other options include Willem Dafoe for At Eternity’s Gate, John David Washington for BlacKkKlansman, Lucas Hedges for Ben is Back, and Jake Gyllenhaal for Wildlife.
No distinction in this category between comedy/musicals and dramas. They all get thrown into the mix. And that mix, for me, will include Spike Lee for BlacKkKlansman, Barry Jenkins for If Beale Street Could Talk, Alfonso Cuaron for Roma, Bradley Cooper for A Star is Born, and Damien Chazelle for First Man. For the other possible nominees, I have Yorgos Lanthimos for The Favourite, Adam McKay for Vice, Steve McQueen for Widows, and Peter Farrelly for Green Book.
Best Motion Picture: Comedy/Musical
For the five films selected as Best Motion Picture: Comedy/Musical, sometimes the HFPA goes with some odd picks (The Greatest Showman, Joy, Alice in Wonderland, The Tourist), so we could have to look out for a couple of those, but from this year’s crop, it looks like we have a list of solid films to work from. My five are A Star is Born, The Favourite, Green Book, Bohemian Rhapsody, and Mary Poppins Returns. Some others to look out for are Crazy Rich Asians, Eighth Grade, The Old Man and the Gun, Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again, and The Ballad of Buster Scruggs.
Best Motion Picture: Drama
Over the years, the drama race is usually the hardest one to whittle down to five nominees, especially if a lot of Oscar-favorites are competing in this category and only one or two are over in the comedy crowd. This year, I’m saying that If Beale Street Could Talk, BlacKkKlansman, Widows, First Man, and Vice will be the five that get in, but keep an eye out for Black Panther, Boy Erased, Beautiful Boy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, and Mary Queen of Scots.