Green Book

2019 Oscars at a Glance: Second Oscar Nomination Predictions

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Now that the Toronto International Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, and Venice Film Festival are over, we have an ever-so-slightly better perception on which films are more likely to be Oscar contenders. At the same time, there are a couple of updates to my predictions, so I wanted to share those. Again, we’re only looking at the top eight categories for now.


Best Adapted Screenplay

Changes: Beautiful Boy out, Can You Ever Forgive Me in.

The other four films I originally predicted (If Beale Street Could Talk, BlacKkKlansman, First Man, and Widows) are still in by my estimations. However, after a lukewarm reception at TIFF, I see Beautiful Boy falling out of this race. In the meantime, the Melissa McCarthy film Can You Ever Forgive Me is bowling over the critics and remains at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. Seeing as the film also deals with a dishonest author, I’d say it has a better chance of being nominated.


Best Original Screenplay

Changes: Eighth Grade out, Green Book in

The surprise winner of the Audience Award at TIFF was Peter Farrelly’s Green Book, which is at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes as of right now. One of the better reviewed aspects of the film was its screenplay. While Bo Burnham has also gained huge notoriety off of his first feature, I see him now falling short of an Oscar nod. That, however, can change, if one of the other four films I foresee getting nominations falls out. Again, they are The Favourite, Backseat, Roma, and The Ballad of Buster Scruggs.


Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Changes: Emma Stone in, Nicole Kidman out

Emma Stone is getting some of the better reviews of her career for her supporting turn in Yorgos Lanthimos’ The Favourite. While initially I was thinking that Stone and her co-star Rachel Weisz would cancel each other out, Stone has instead come out as the favorite, so to speak, between the two performances. And with Lucas Hedges receiving the best reviews acting-wise from Boy Erased, I see Nicole Kidman falling short. I still have Regina King, Margot Robbie, Claire Foy, and Amy Adams getting nominations.


Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Changes: Mahershala Ali in, Joel Edgerton out

As mentioned, Green Book impressed in a big way at TIFF, and both Mahershala Ali and co-star Viggo Mortensen received glowing reviews from critics. Therefore, I can see Oscar-winner Ali getting his second nod for this one. And again using Lucas Hedges as the main drumbeat for Boy Erased, Edgerton is the first to go. Joining Ali in my list of nominee predictions is Sam Rockwell, Timothee Chalamet, Daniel Kaluuya, and Richard E. Grant.


Best Actress in a Leading Role

Changes: none

Still going with Saoirse Ronan, Viola Davis, Melissa McCarthy, Felicity Jones, and Olivia Colman being the five here. Though it’s worth noting that Glenn Close’s new film The Wife has started to pick up at the box office. Also, both Nicole Kidman and Lady Gaga are having a wave of great reviews from the fall festivals, so there is still a pretty thick competition going on here.


Best Actor in a Leading Role

Changes: Viggo Mortensen in, Steve Carell out

I see Green Book getting both Viggo and Mahershala in. Think about it this way: Viggo received a nomination (well deserved, by the way) for Captain Fantastic, a massively overlooked film until it bounced back for awards season. If Viggo can get nominated for that, he should have no problem getting his third acting nod for Green Book. Again going back to the lukewarm reception of Beautiful Boy, I’m starting to think Timothee Chalamet will be the sole nomination for the film at this rate. I could be wrong, and the film could come on strong later, but that’s my thinking at this point. Alongside Mortensen, I’m also predicting Christian Bale, Ryan Gosling, Lucas Hedges, and Rami Malek.


Best Director

Changes: none

Again nothing new here. I’m still on Spike Lee, Damien Chazelle, Barry Jenkins, Alfonso Cuaron, and Yorgos Lanthimos all receiving nominations this year. Again, look out for Bradley Cooper, who’s riding the waves of the fall festivals for his work both in front of and behind the camera for A Star is Born. And back to Green Book, it would be amazing to say that the director of Dumb & Dumber and There’s Something about Mary could also potentially be an Oscar nominee for directing. Still, I had my qualms about Adam McKay getting a nod for The Big Short a few years ago, so keep that in mind.


Best Picture

Changes: Green Book in, Beautiful Boy out

Nine of the last ten years, the TIFF Audience Award winner has at least been nominated for Best Picture. That spells great things for Universal and co. for Green Book. Looking over all the reviews, I’m seeing Beautiful Boy now as the weak link in my Best Picture lineup. So now Green Book gets a Best Picture prediction stable, next to First Man, If Beale Street Could Talk, BlacKkKlansman, The Favourite, Roma, Mary Queen of Scots, A Star is Born, Black Panther, and Backseat.

I’m thinking that since we won’t have another major film festival to shake up the Oscar race until the New York Film Festival (September 28-October 14), I’ll wait on updates until then. Unless we have a major change, like if Backseat or Mary Queen of Scots gets pulled from their release dates and switched to 2019, which has been known to happen.