The Golden Globes race was flipped on its head late last week when both Warner Brothers and 20th Century Fox announced their juggernauts A Star is Born and Bohemian Rhapsody would both be entered as dramas and not as comedies/musicals. Now that leaves some open vacancy in the comedy/musical categories and stuffs the drama race even more than before. So with all that, which hopefuls make it in and which have to be pulled out? Well, here’s my two cents. Keep in mind that all my predictions for the screenplay, director, and supporting acting races will be staying the same. Just the lead actor and actress categories and the film categories will be changing.
Best Actress: Comedy/Musical
Lady Gaga had this category almost to herself when A Star is Born was here, but now that she’s over in drama, that leaves an open spot. For now, I have Olivia Colman winning the race for The Favourite, as long as she remains in the lead category, but Fox Searchlight has not given an update as to where they’re placing her in the race. Emma Stone could switch out and be considered lead. After Colman comes Emily Blunt for Mary Poppins Returns, Constance Wu for Crazy Rich Asians, Elsie Fisher for Eighth Grade, and Charlize Theron for Tully. The only good news from Gaga leaving this category is allowing someone like Charlize, who didn’t have a prayer before now, to get into this category and score a nomination for her work. The only other options I see for this category are Lily James for Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again or Sandra Bullock for Ocean’s 8, and both of those are stretches at this point.
Best Actor: Comedy/Musical
With both Bradley Cooper and Rami Malek gone, that leaves two spots open for this list. The other three I had before, Christian Bale for Vice, Robert Redford for The Old Man and the Gun, and Viggo Mortensen for Green Book, all remain in this category. For the other two slots, I have Lin-Manuel Miranda for Mary Poppins Returns and John C. Reilly for The Sisters Brothers. Really, these are the only two options I see for now. Again, a koodos we can get from Cooper and Malek gone here is allowing an opportunity for Reilly and Miranda to secure nominations (at this rate). But beware these other possible nominees: Ewan McGregor for Christopher Robin, Steve Carell for Welcome to Marwen, Ryan Reynolds for Deadpool 2, and Henry Golding for Crazy Rich Asians, and that’s assuming he doesn’t go for supporting actor.
Best Actress: Drama
Now that Gaga’s over here, we have to clear out one nominee. For me, my five right now are Saoirse Ronan for Mary Queen of Scots, Viola Davis for Widows, Melissa McCarthy for Can You Ever Forgive Me, Kiki Layne for If Beale Street Could Talk, and Lady Gaga for A Star is Born. That leaves out Glenn Close for The Wife. She could easily follow in the footsteps of Julianne Moore and Geraldine Page, two examples in the past of classic Hollywood stars who never won an Oscar, but whose publicists and campaigners played up that fact enough for them to sweep the Awards season calendar. Close fits that mold perfectly with six previous nominations, and losing every one of them. Also, keep an eye out for Yalitza Aparicio for Roma, Nicole Kidman for Destroyer, Julia Roberts for Ben is Back, Felicity Jones for On the Basis of Sex, Keira Knightley for Colette, and Amandla Stenberg for The Hate U Give. So as you see, there’s a lot to work with in this category, and all this competition makes it harder for Gaga to claim a second Golden Globe Award. Warner Brothers should have thought about that before claiming it to be a drama.
Best Actor: Drama
Another packed category now is the lead actors on the drama side. With Cooper’s powerhouse performance in A Star is Born, I’m putting him out front for now in this category, so maybe switching him over to this category didn’t make a difference. Still, the other four I have right now are Ryan Gosling for First Man, Rami Malek for Bohemian Rhapsody, Hugh Jackman for The Front Runner, and Willem Dafoe for At Eternity’s Gate. So that means I had to take out Steve Carell and Lucas Hedges here, and they’re still two strong possibilities. Another couple to look out for are John David Washington for BlacKkKlansman, Ethan Hawke for First Reformed, Clint Eastwood for The Mule, and maybe Chadwick Boseman for Black Panther.
Best Motion Picture: Comedy/Musical
Like Gaga and Cooper, A Star is Born pretty much had this category to itself, with the exception of The Favourite and Green Book, both of which could come back later in the Oscar race as presumed frontrunners. And Bohemian Rhapsody pretty much had guaranteed itself a nomination here, but will have a much harder time over in drama. With Star and Bohemian out, I still have these two in, but now also Vice, Crazy Rich Asians, and Mary Poppins Returns. Other than that, Eighth Grade, The Old Man and the Gun, and Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again are the only other three films I have an eye on for this category.
Best Motion Picture: Drama
Now that we have to make room for the two new entries, I have a few changes in this category, too. I still have If Beale Street Could Talk out front, then First Man, but now I have A Star is Born in third, Widows in fourth, and BlacKkKlansman in fifth. So there, Bohemian Rhapsody as a drama may still score Rami Malek a nod, but the film itself is pretty much dead in the water for a Best Motion Picture: Drama nomination. My other possible noms remain at Can You Ever Forgive Me, Black Panther, Beautiful Boy, Boy Erased, and Mary Queen of Scots. And just in case, I’ll throw The Mule in there, too.